US Crop Ratings Held No Bullish Surprises

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Lower trade across the Ag space this AM as longer range forecasts are less threatening while US crop ratings held no bullish surprises.  This week’s much above normal temperatures across the nation’s midsection. US on are expected to ease by late this weekend into early next week.  The evening GFS model does provide better prospects for rain in the NW corn and soybean belt next week.  Exactly how widespread these rains are, and how they are distributed will go a long way in shaping price action the 2^nd half of July.  Rainfall across the WC region of the Midwest still appear to be minimal.  Precipitation in the past 24 hours was limited to the Gulf coast and SE.  Rains over the next 5 days will continue to favor the S. Midwest and Gulf coast region with lighter amounts for the central and ECB.  Much of central and western Europe holding in a hot dry pattern.  Some rain potential for E. France not likely to provide much relief.  Seasonably warm temperatures in SA with rains limited to S. Brazil and EC Argentina.  Agricultural prices seem to be shaking off higher energy prices as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.  Pres. Trump maintains the US will charge a 20% fee for safe guarding the SOH.  Spot WTI crude oil is up $1.85 per barrel near $80 while trading above $81 for the 1^st time in a month.  Spot RBOB is up $.07 a gallon while HO is $.13 higher.  The US $$ is lower while holding within yesterday’s range.  US equity markets are mixed.

Corn:

Sept-26 and Dec-26 are both $.06 lower at $4.35 and $4.57 ¼ respectively.  Both were quick to fill their gaps from the Sunday night open.  Initial support for Dec-26 is at Friday’s low of $4.47 ½. Conditions improved 1% to 68% G/E, in line with expectations, however still well below 74% from YA.  Ratings improved in 14 states while declining in 4.  Overall ratings remain slightly above the historical average.  Ratings improved 9% in Oh, 8% in KY and 7% in ND.  Ratings fell 7% in NC and SD, and 3% in PA.  34% of the crop is silking vs. 32% YA and 5-year Ave. of 30%.  6% of the crop is in the dough stage, matching YA.

Soybeans: 

Aug-26 beans are down $.06 ¾ at $11.90 while Nov-26 is $.08 ¾ lower at $11.86.  Both traded rejected trade back above $12 yesterday for the 2^nd time this month.  Support for Aug-26 is at its 100-day MA at $11.72 while support for Nov-26 is at $11.70.  Aug-26 meal is down $2.20 at $315 holding near its 50 and 100-day MA’s.  Aug-26 oil has just turned lower, off 10 points at 72.72 this after scratching out a 5-week high.  Crush margins held steady overnight at $3.02 bu.  The USDA announced another flash sale of 136k mt of soybeans to China yesterday, while last week’s flash sales to China/unknown reached 856k mt.  US FOB offers at the Gulf stretched out to a $.30 premium over Brazilian offers for Aug/Sept timeframe.  Chinese bean imports in June reached an all-time high at 13.55 mmt, up 15% from May-26 and up 10.5% from June-25.  In the first half of 2026 total imports reached 49.4 mmt, up 1.5% YOY.  Tomorrow’s NOPA crush report is expected to show members processed 204 mil. bu. in June, down from 208.8 mil. in May-26 while above the 185 in June-25.  Bean oil stocks are expected to slip to 1.653 bil. lbs. down from 1.735 in May however, up from 1.384 bil. YA.  Crop ratings also improved 1% to 65% G/E, in line with expectations.  Overall ratings remain slightly above the historical average.  Conditions improved in 10 states while declining in 8.  Ratings rose 11% in KY, 9% in OH and 8% in AR.  Ratings declined 4% in NC and 2% in IL.  50% of the crop is blooming, vs. 45% YA and 5-year Ave. of 44%.  19% of the crop is setting pods, above the 14% from YA.

Wheat: 

Prices range from $.03-$.06 lower across the 3 classes.  CGO Sept-26 is down $.04 ¾ at $6.30 ½, KC Sept-26 is $.05 ½ lower at $6.60 ½ while MIAX Sept is $.03 ½ lower at $6.49 ¾.  While Russian grain shipments remain restricted thru the Don-Azov channel, vessels can travel across the Sea of Azov, however not able to exit thru the Kerch Strait, which links to the Black Sea.  It appears potential bottlenecks have eased however not eliminated.  Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters maintains they will be able to meet their export commitments.  Winter wheat harvest advanced to 67%, while slightly below expectations it remains above the 62% from YA and 5-year Ave. of 61%.  Spring wheat ratings rose 1% to 58% G/E, however the crop rated poor/VP rose 3% to 10%.  The fair category fell 4% to 32%.  Despite the decline, overall ratings remain just above their historical average.  Conditions improved in 2 states (MN and ND) while declining in 4 (ID, MT, SD and WA).  72% of the crop is headed, in line with the 5-year Ave.

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