Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Higher trade across most of the Ag space this AM as markets inject additional weather and war premium. Temperatures soared above 105 F across areas of the N. Plains and NW corn and soybean belt this weekend keeping selling in check. Much above normal temperatures combined with no rain will lead to a rapid depletion of soil moisture. Moderate to heavy rain fell across the S. Midwest and parts of the ECB. Precipitation this week will again favor the S. Midwest and Gulf coast region. No rain for much of the central midwest, WCB and plain states. By the end of the week the high pressure ridge is expected to shift further west bringing some temperature relief to the N. plains while better prospects for rain. Energy prices are also higher as the US and Iran exchanged military strikes over the weekend. Iran declared the Straits of Hormuz is once again closed while the Trump Administration maintains the waterway is open to commercial traffic. Spot WTI crude oil is up $2.65 per barrel near $74. Spot RBOB is up $.08 a gallon while HO is $.14 higher. Much of central and western Europe holding in a hot dry pattern. Some rain potential for E. France not likely to provide much releif. Seasonably warm temperatures in SA with rains limited to S. Brazil. The US $$ is slightly higher in 2-sided trade while US equity markets are mixed.
Corn:
Gap higher open overnight with Sept-26 currently $.06 higher at $4.45 ½ while Dec-26 is up $.07 at $4.68. Both traded to fresh 6-week highs. Damaging heat from this weekend not likely to show up in today’s crop updates. Money managers were net buyers of 59k contracts of corn in the latest CFTC reporting period, flipping their position back to net long 12,659 contracts. Global stocks/use among major exporting countries fell to 10.8% in June from 11.5% for the 2025/26 MY. Stocks/use for 2026/27 forecast to fall to 9.8%, down from 10.5% in June.
Soybeans:
Aug-26 beans are up $.07 at $11.98 ¾ while Nov-26 is $.06 ¼ higher at $11.97. Both traded back above $12 before pulling back. Major resistance for Aug-26 is at its March high of $12.31, while resistance for Nov-26 is at $12.14. Aug-26 meal is steady at $320.50 while Aug-26 oil is up over $.01 at 71.66. Inside trade for meal while resistance for Aug-26 oil is at 72.12. Crush margins (Aug-26) rebounded another $.05 ½ to $2.95 ½ bu. with bean oil PV approaching 53%. Announced sales of new crop soybeans to China/unknown reached 856k mt last week.
Wheat:
Prices ranged from $.02 lower to $.02 higher across the 3 classes. CGO Sept-26 is down $.02 ¼ at $6.38, falling back after reaching a fresh 7-week high. KC Sept-26 is $.02 lower at $6.74 ¼ while MIAX Sept is $.02 higher at $6.54 ½. Open interest in CGO was little changed from Friday despite heavy speculative buying. We estimate the MM short position is back under 50k contracts. Shipments thru the Don-Azov channel remain on hold following Ukrainian missile attacks. APK-Inform raised their Ukraine 2026 wheat production forecast .7 mmt to 22.4 mmt vs. the USDA forecast of 24 mmt.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
