Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower driven by the less threatening mid-range forecast. Spreads were mixed and little changed. The midpoint of the Sept-26 range over the past 2 weeks is at $4.25. Yesterday Dec-26 topped out just shy of $4.66, the 50% Fibonacci retracement between the May high and the June low. A Reuters survey shows traders expect lower corn stocks for both old and new crop in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE update. Little change is expected for this year’s production. Yesterday’s EIA ethanol production was below the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage est. for a 12th consecutive week. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 64 mmt, vs. USDA at 61 mmt, while reporting harvest has reached 56%. The Rosario Grain Exchange held their production forecast unchanged at 68 mmt. Exports at 38 mil. bu. were below expectations. Old crop commitments at 3.384 bil. bu. are up 24% YOY vs. the USDA forecast up 16%. Commitments represent 102% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 96%. Pace analysis would suggest the USDA export forecast at 3.325 bil. is still too low.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with beans down $.10-$.16, meal was $4-$5 higher while oil was off 90 points. Bean spreads eased while meal spreads firmed. Support for Aug-26 beans rests at its 100-day MA at $11.70 ¾. Aug-26 meal closed into a 1-month high. Aug-26 oil backed up a touch after registering a fresh 3-week high. Crush margins (Aug-26) jumped $.16 to $2.89 ½ bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 52.5%. US FOB offers at the Gulf remain at a $.10-$.20 per bu. premium over Brazilian offers out to Nov-26. Like corn, I do not expect the USDA to come off their 53 bpa trendline yield forecast. The BAGE kept their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 50.1 mmt, in line with the USDA. The Rosario Grain Exchange held their production forecast unchanged at 51.5 mmt. Soybean sales at 17 mil. were in line with expectations.
WHEAT
Prices jumped $.08-$.12 across the 3 classes ahead of tomorrow’s USDA production updates. CGO Sept-26 was up $.12 at $6.19 ¾ closing right at its 100-day MA. KC Sept-26 was $.09 higher at $6.54 ¼ while MIAX Sept was up $.08 ¼ at $6.39. The Reuters survey shows traders expect US 26/27 wheat stocks to slip 30 mil. bu. to 714 mil. All wheat production is expected to fall 18 mil. to 1.525 bil. due to lower winter wheat. The Ave. WW production forecast at 1.001 bil. is down 29 mil. from June. The BAGE reports Argentine plantings have reached 88%. Trade is also bracing for lower global stocks driven by lower production in the EU. Export sales of 11.5 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD commitments at 225 mil. bu. are down 21% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%.
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