ADMIS News
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2026
June 29, 2026
COFFEE
September Coffee extended Monday’s recovery rally early Tuesday and reached its highest level since April 24. Brazil’s harvest has been slowed by unseasonal rains in recent weeks, and this has exacerbated an already tight supply situation from last year. The market has been expecting a bumper (arabica) crop in Brazil, and that combined with a mostly steady robusta crop was supposed to result in record coffee production for that nation this year. The delayed harvest leaves near term supplies tight, and that and the talk of possible damage appear to have lowered expectations. ICE arabica stocks have fallen to their lowest level in more than two years. World Weather Inc. says conditions in Brazil turned drier over the weekend and that they should persist for the next week to 10 days, which should enable harvest activity and perhaps ease concerns about bean quality. Indonesia is starting to feel the effects of El Nino as drier conditions emerge, and parts of Vietnam are seeing a light and sporadic rainfall trend. Extreme heat and drought brought on by El Nino could hurt robusta production.
COCOA
September Cocoa was higher early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range. Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast ports are at their highest level in three years, which attests to a strong mid-crop in west Africa. However, heavy rainfall in the region has raised concerns about the upcoming mid-crop. World Weather Inc. does expect drier conditions have emerged this week, and they say El Nino’s effects are starting to be felt. The region is in its rainy season, which typically runs from April to mid-November, but it is not unusual for the rains to diminish in July and August.
SUGAR
October Sugar closed higher for the fourth straight session on Monday was pushed above Monday’s high early Tuesday. The heatwave in Europe is raising concerns about the beet crop there, and reduced rainfall expectations for India and Thailand to El Nino are threatening to tighten global supplies. Brazil did turn drier over the weekend and is expected to remain that way over the next week to 10 days, which should help cane harvest and crushing advance. That nation’s sugar production tends to peak for the year in late July or early August. World Weather Inc. said excess heat combined with the drying soil likely slowed or delayed development of sugar beets and other crops in portions of Western and central Europe in recent days. Areas that experienced the warmest and driest conditions may have seen some crops wither. Concern over the potential for production losses are rising, especially in France. They added that the ground will remain too dry to improve crop conditions for much of France, Belgium, the Netherlands, southern England, northwestern Germany, and rain-fed areas in Spain for at least the next week to ten days. Crop conditions may deteriorate further and concerns for significant production losses will remain high. Other areas in Europe will receive enough rain to potentially improve short-term development conditions. However, resulting rainfall will be too light to completely fix the moisture deficits that evolved in recent days.
COTTON
December Cotton was higher early Tuesday but short of Monday’s high. US crop conditions declined last week per the weekly Crop Progress report after the close on Monday, but traders are reluctant to push the market ahead of the USDA Planted Acreage report today. The progress report showed 48% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of June 28, down from 53% the previous week and 51% a year ago and on par with the five-year average for this date. Texas was 39% G/E, down from 44% last week and the same as 39% a year ago. Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oklahoma all declined. The report also showed 37% of the crop was squaring versus 38% a year ago and a five-year average for this date of 36% and that 5% of the crop was setting bolls, unchanged from a year ago and the five-year average.
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