Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q2 2026
June 29, 2026
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mixed, 2-sided trade across the Ag space is starting to lean lower this AM ahead of today’s USDA stocks/acreage updates. Speculative traders were healthy sellers yesterday extending their short positions in feed grains while reducing length in the soybean complex. Soybean deliveries appeared light at only 31 contracts relative to the 800 registered with the CME. The only rain of significance the past 24 hours for US cropland was in the N. plains with another system tracking across NW IA and SC MN this AM. Rainfall in the first week of July will favor the N. Midwest as the high pressure ridge keeps much of the nation’s midsection warm and humid. Week 2 of the outlook has the ridge shifting west leaving much above normal temperatures limited to the far WCB and plain states. Hot/dry conditions persist across western and central Europe. Rain in South American are limited to S. Brazil with lighter amounts for EC Argentina. Cooler than normal in Argentina and S. Brazil, above normal temperatures for C. and N. Brazil. Energy prices are slightly higher with limited fresh news from the Middle East. Spot WTI crude oil is up $.40 per barrel near $71.15 while Spot RBOB is up $.01 per gallon with HO $.05 higher. The US $$$ and US stock indices are moderately higher.
Corn:
July-26 is down $.00 ½ at $4.01 ½ while Dec-26 is off $.02 at $4.28. Both held within yesterday’s range while resting near session lows. US crop ratings slipped 1% to 67% G/E. Ratings improved in 8 states, declined in 9 while holding steady in 1. Overall crop ratings remain slightly above the historical average. Ratings jumped 6% in NE while up 5% in ND and OH. Ratings fell 8% in TX, 7% in IN and 5% in KY. 9% of the crop is silking vs. 7% YA and 5-year Ave. of 6%. The end of June stocks/acreage report has historically leaned bearish for corn prices closing lower on report day the past 4 years and 65% of the years dating back to 2000. A French grain association, AGPM, states their countries corn production may fall as much as 30% down to 9.5 mmt due to the damaging heatwave.
Soybeans:
July-26 soybeans are $.01 ¾ lower at $11.07 while Nov-26 beans are off $.03 ½ at $11.35 ½. July-26 meal is down $2.00 at $302.70 while July-26 oil is 56 points lower at 68.51 resting at session lows. Crush margins fell another $.09 ½ overnight to $3.12 bu. Prices continue to seek a level that attracts Chinese demand. US FOB offers at the Gulf are a slight premium over Brazilian offers for July-26, while slightly below Aug-26 forward. US crop ratings slipped 1% to 65% G/E, in line with expectations. There was a 1% shift from good to VP enabling the CC index to slip to 81.5, still slightly above the historical average. Ratings improved in 8 states, declined in 8 while holding steady in 2. Ratings rose 7% in LA and 5% in NE. Ratings declined 7% in IN and 6% in AK. 19% of the crop is blooming, vs. 16% YA and 5-year Ave. of 15%. 4% of the crop is setting pods, just above YA and the 5-year Ave. In addition to the stocks/acreage data the EIA will also release their monthly biofuel capacity, production and feedstock usage data from April-26. The end of June stocks/acreage report has historically been more balanced for soybeans as it produced a higher close 14 times in the last 26 years dating back to 2000.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.02 lower in CGO to $.03 higher in Sept-26 MIAX. CGO Sept-26 is down $.02 at $5.77 ¾, KC Sept is steady at $6.14 ¾, while MIAX July-26 is up over $.12 bu. after crashing $.30 at yesterday’s close. Winter wheat ratings held at 26% G/E however there was a 1% shift from fair to VP. Overall ratings remain the lowest in 20 years for late-June. Harvest advanced only 8% to 48%, vs. 34% YA and 5-year Ave. of 39%. With harvest advancing rapidly I suspect we will see an even higher level of abandoned acres than the current USDA est. Spring wheat ratings jumped 5% to 59% G/E vs. expectations for only a 2% rise. Overall ratings are above their historical average. Conditions improved in 4 states, declined in 1 and held steady in 1. 32% of the crop is headed, just below YA and the 5-year Ave. Argus raised their Russian production forecast 2.5 mmt to 91.2 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 88 mmt.
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