Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
August Crude Oil was higher early Wednesday but inside Tuesday’s range down. The recent exchange of attacks between the US and Iran have lent only limited support to crude oil prices. The market seems to be dismissing ominous predictions of tightening global supply as the US and other nations continue to draw down their reserves and is instead looking at indications of slowing demand and some possibly some mitigation of supply via a few ships from the Strait of Hormuz or via pipeline to the Guld of Oman and the Red Sea.
PRODUCTS
Product prices found modest support on Wednesday off the recent attacks between the US and Iran that threaten to halt the peace process, such as it is. The API report on Tuesday showed US gasoline stocks -1.19 million barrels for the week ending June 5 versus an average trade expectation -500,000 and distillate stocks +1.32 million versus -500,000 expected.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas was reversed higher early Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since May 27 earlier in the session, closing a gap from Monday’s open. US near-term supplies may be ample, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast have pointed to lower cooling demand out ahead, but long term demand trends favor higher prices. In addition to that, the 8-14 day map is are looking a little less cool than it was yesterday for the nation’s midsection, with more of a normal trend. LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states is around 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May and the record 110.6 bcfd in December.
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