Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
July Crude Oil was lower early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range, as the market tried to assess the mixed signals it was receiving form Washington and Iran. President Trump said on Monday that talks with Iran were ongoing, and he told ABC News he expected a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz “over the next week.” This came after a report from Iran’s Tasnim news agency that the nation was halting indirect negotiations with the US and that plans were being made for Iranian forces and their allies to completely block the Strait of Hormuz. Lebanon announced a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel on Monday that would have Israel refraining from strikes on Beirut and its suburbs controlled by Hezbollah, while Hezbollah would halt its attacks on Israel. The head of the IEA reiterated that global oil inventories could hit critical levels ahead of the peak summer demand period if stock draws continue at their current pace, adding that it could take six to eight months in the best-case scenario to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement was reached today.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were slightly lower early Tuesday but inside Monday’s ranges. the early Reuters poll has an average expectation calling for US gasoline stocks to be -100,000 barrels (nearly unchanged) for the week ending May 29, with and distillate stocks expected to be -600,000 barrels.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas has extended its selloff from Monday that seemed to come from disappointment that the market failed to close a gap from March early in Monday’s session. For the EIA storage report this week, the early Reuters poll has range of expectations calling for a net injection of 95 to 115 billion cubic feet for the week ending May 29. The five-year average change for that week is +101 bcf.
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