Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CRUDE OIL
July Crude Oil was near unchanged early Wednesday and was hovering around Tuesday’s high. The market has drawn support this week after the latest attempts at negotiating an end to the Iran war went nowhere. Perhaps a new attempt at negotiation will come out of the meeting between President Trump is Chinese President Xi this week. The are reports of a small number of crude carriers and LNG tankers making it through the Strait of Hormuz, which appear to be as a result of some sort of accommodation on the part of shippers and exporting nations with Iran. A Chinese supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude was reported to be attempting to sail through the strait today based on Kpler ship-tracking data. This would be the third known passage by a Chinese oil tanker through the strait since the start of the war. There are also reports that Iran has cut deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and LNG from the Gulf.
PRODUCTS
Like crude oil, product prices are hovering near yesterday’s highs but not making new ground early Wednesday.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas was higher mixed Wednesday after rejecting the rally from earlier in the week and failing to take out a key resistance level. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast maps show above normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 states but the extreme heat conditions, when they appear, are fleeting, and this seems to limit the possibility of an early season surge in electricity demand for cooling.
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