Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CORN
Prices were up $.04 ½ – $.06 ½ while nearby spreads eased ahead of Thursday’s FND for May-26 futures. July-26 and Dec-26 both traded into new highs for the month. July-26 is back near the upper end of its $4.50-$4.80 range. Plantings advanced 14% to 25% complete vs. 22% YA and 5-year Ave. of 19%. Seedings were further along than expected and the highest since 2020. The N. Midwest is the only region that lagged their historical average with MI and WI at 3% vs. 4% Ave., while zero planting reported so far in ND vs. at average of 3%. Emergence has reached 7% vs. 5% YA and 5-year Ave. of 4%. Large speculative traders reportedly bought 13k contracts yesterday stretching their long position back out to 195k contracts. O.I. however fell 19k contracts driven by liquidation of the May-26 contract which was down just over 54k contracts. Ukraine plantings have reached 10%. EU imports as of April 26th at 14.46 mmt are down 16% from YA. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production very near the previous week’s output of 306 mil. gallons. Margins have remained elevated as corn costs haven’t held pace with higher ethanol prices.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed in 2-sided trade. Beans ranged from down $.04 to up $.01, meal was mixed while holding within $1 of unchanged in the old crop contracts while oil surged 60-110 points. Bean spreads and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads soared. Inside trade for July-26 beans while holding in an $11.55-$12 range. July-26 meal has resistance at this month’s high of $335.60 while July-26 oil held just shy of its contract high at 72.64. Bean oil attracts speculative buying as expected demand for biofuels soar. Higher crude oil prices continue to fuel inflationary concerns as the US/Iran war remains at a standoff. The Straits of Hormuz remains closed with no peace talks scheduled as Pres. Trump maintains negotiations could happen over the phone. Another day, another new all-time high in US crush margins as they surged another $.15 ½ to $3.67 ½ bu. Bean oil PV rebounded to 52.4%. With D4 RIN’s valued at roughly $1.90 biodiesel manufacturers are collecting $2.85 per gallon of production while RD is generating over $3.00. EPA data showing biodiesel and RD production along with feedstocks usage from Feb-26 is due out on Thursday. Census soybean crush from Mch-26 is after the close of trade on Friday. Would expect see bean oil stocks start to come off their 6-year highs in Feb. The EU rejection of a couple of cargoes of Argentine soybean meal into the Netherlands has supported US meal basis levels while helping drive crush margins into the stratosphere. Plantings are at a record pace at 23%, above the 17% pace from YA and 5-year Ave. of 12%. The final leg of plantings in the Delta will be slowed by rain this week. MS is at 66% vs. 41% Ave., LA at 77% vs. 45% Ave. and AR at 61% vs. 35% Ave. Nationally, 8% of the crop has emerged vs. only 2% YA and 5-year Ave. of 1%.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.19-$.30 higher. CGO July-26 jumped out to a 14-month high, KC July-26 traded above $7.00 for the first time in nearly 2 years while MIAX July-26 closed into new contract highs. EU 25/26 soft wheat exports as of April 26th at 19.3 mmt are up 7% YOY. US wheat export demand will remain minimal with US prices uncompetitive in the global marketplace. WW ratings held steady at 30% G/E, however there was a 2% shift from fair to Poor/VP. Overall ratings remain well below their historical average. Ratings in KS fell another 1% to only 23% G/E while poor/VP held at 41%. Look for a higher-than-normal level of abandonment in KS this year. Ratings fell 6% in CO and OR while dropping 4% in NC and SD. Conditions surged 14% in AR. Nationally 34% of the crop is headed, vs. 25% YA and 5-year Ave. of 21%. Spring wheat plantings advanced only 7% to 19% complete, vs. 28% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 22%. My analysis suggests current WW ratings would suggest an average yield at 49.7 bpa with production just under 1.190 bil. bu., the lowest in 4 years.
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