Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil was higher early Wednesday and was approaching the contract high of 104.34 from March 9 on a report from the Wall Street Journal s that President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, as the Administration intends to squeeze Iran’s economy and oil exports. This seems to put the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz further out into the future. UAE’s departure from OPEC is not expected to have much immediate effect on global oil supply; the strait needs to be opened first. UAE are the fourth-largest producer in group, and they have been unhappy with their allotted quotas. Their departure risks a price war once the strait is opened.
PRODUCTS
API gasoline stocks were -8.47 million barrels last week versus -2.1 million expected, and distillates were -2.6 million versus -2.2 million expected. The EIA report will be released later this morning. June RBOB reached another new contract high early Wednesday. T
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas fell to a new low for the move early Wednesday and to its lowest level since August 2021. The nearby contract is at its lowest level since November 2024. The 6-10 and 8-14 day maps are showing below normal temperatures across the eastern two thirds of the US lower 48 states, but that is not providing much support to the market this late in the season.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
ADM Named to FORTUNE’s Most Admired Company List
January 23, 2026
