Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
London Wheat Report
Grains continued to edge higher as the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain with peace talks seemingly faltering. Both sides accuse one another of violating the ceasefire, with only a handful of vessels able to pass through in the past 24 hours.
There had been some nervousness that Trump would cancel the China meeting given the potential for ongoing conflict, but now he has said that he would speak to Xi about soybean purchases and Russian oil and believes the U.S. and China “will make a deal on … everything.”
The US crop progress report didn’t throw up many surprises, showing 11% of the corn crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 5% the week earlier and vs 9% on average. 4% percent had emerged, ahead of the average of 2%. Soybeans showed 12% were in the ground, up from 6% week-on-week and well ahead of the prior five-year average of 5%.
About 30% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated as Good-Excellent, down from 34% a week earlier. This is compared to 45% during the same week in 2025. Weather maps show some rain for the 4-7 day period for the impacted areas, but will still need to be realised.
The USDA also posted two flash sales showing Colombia is buying 100,000 metric tons of corn for the 2025/2026 marketing year. Unknown destinations are buying 195,000 metric tons of corn for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
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