Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil was slightly lower early Tuesday on hopes that the peace talks between the US and Iran would resume in Pakistan this week. A Pakistani source told Reuters there was momentum for talks to resume on Wednesday and that Vice President Vance was expected in Islamabad. An Iranian official said that no decision had been made on attending the talks. The trade is also hoping for an extension of the cease fire, which was set to end today. The head of the world’s largest oil trader, Vitol, told the FT Global Commodities Summit that the war had resulted in 600-700 million barrels of lost oil supply. In a sign that some sort of stasis has been achieved since the cutoff of Persian Gulf supply, China said it will lower domestic retail gasoline and diesel price caps starting Tuesday night, its first cut this year. They have raised the maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel three times since March.
PRODUCTS
Gasoline and diesel prices are slightly higher this morning despite some optimism for the peace talks to resume. Data from Kpler indicates US refined product exports are expected to reached 3.59 million bpd this month versus 2.83 million bpd in January, and this supports higher prices in the US.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas backed off from Monday’s high overnight. The market did manage a four day bounce off 18-month lows, as the warmer than normal pattern of the past several months has eased a bit. The 6-10 and 8-14 day maps show cooler than normal temperatures over much of the US, which may allow some late season heating demand that could slow the pace of injections into US supply next week.
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