Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
London Wheat Report
Volumes remained thin on London wheat with only 216 lots traded across all positions and the newcrop/oldcrop spread narrowing to £3.50. US wheat gave back some of yesterday’s gains and MATIF followed suit, though corn and soybeans traded higher. Energy markets are treading water as Donald Trump reports the Iran war ‘close to over’.
NOPA printed the second highest soy crush number for any month on record and the highest ever for March. Whilst this was an 8.3% increase on February and 16.3% on last year it still fell short of analysts’ expectations. Soy oil stocks declined 2% month-on-month to 2.039 billion pounds but still represent an increase of 36% year-on-year.
Ethanol production for the week ending April 10th was above expectations with 110 million bushels of corn used, above the daily rate projected by the USDA.
Corn planting in Ukraine is now underway, with 1,000 hectares sown as of today. Other spring crop plantings are advancing well, with spring wheat and spring barley now at 69% and 70% complete. Russia extended its grain export quota for the current season for another 5 million tonnes of wheat to be added to an earlier agreed quota of 20 million tonnes until June 30th.
Continuing dry conditions for most of Australia and warming weather into late April will support a rapid planting pace for wheat and rapeseed planting.
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