Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
London Wheat Report
A slow day on London wheat with only circa 300 lots traded in total, and price action on both May and Nov was within £1. This diverged somewhat from US markets, which continued higher, supported by lower-than-expected rainfall across the Great Plains and little rain in the forecast, leaving up to two-thirds of the crop at risk of yield loss.
Winter wheat conditions fell by another percent to 34% good-excellent and a 1% shift from excellent to poor. Corn showed a more modest increase with planting progress at 5% vs 4% on average. The U.S. dollar slipped to its weakest since early March, making dollar-denominated commodities more competitive.
France’s farm ministry reduced their estimate for winter soft wheat plantings from 4.58 million hectares for this year’s harvest down from 4.59 million in February, though is 2.7% higher than 2025 but 0.4% below the five-year average.
Ukraine’s state weather forecasters reported crop conditions ‘generally assessed as good’. In some areas of the central regions, damage to winter wheat plants caused by pests and mechanical damage resulting from crop maintenance was observed’
Brent Crude traded lower as the U.S. said it continued to engage with Tehran to make a deal even despite the blockade of Iranian ports.
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