Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead for 14 April 2026

Market sentiment continues to be buffeted by Iran related headlines, with a notable skew in reaction function to celebrating anything related to a ceasefire being extended, hostilities ending, and rather more muted reaction to threats of, and actual escalation, though FX markets appear to be more priced for an extended conflict than equities and other risk assets, while bond yields remain close to their cyclical highs. There are plenty of distractions from the Middle East conflict on the day’s agenda via way of the overnight China Trade, Singapore Q1 GDP and MAS policy decision, UK BRC Retail Sales and Barclaycard Consumer Spending. Ahead lie the start of the IMF/World Bank meetings with updated economic forecasts, the IMF Financial Stability Report and a rash of central bank speakers, US PPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism. Financials will again the run of US Q1 corporate earnings, via way of Blackrock, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, with Johnson & Johnson also reporting. Last but not least the IEA publishes its monthly Oil Market Report, which will include extended forecasts into 2027.

* China – China’s Trade data were very wide of estimates, though the sharp slowdown in exports, and surge in Imports owed far more to seasonality, LNY base effects and not infrequent delays to deliveries of soybeans from Brazil, rather than signalling impacts from the Middle East conflict, which will likely emerge in Q2. But in the first instance any likely sharp (after this month’s surge) deceleration should be attributed more to high prices than supply chain disruptions, even if the latter will be a factor.

* U.S.A. – For PPI forecasters looking for a jump of 1.1% m/m headline to bump the y/y pace to 4.5% from February’s 3.4%, but the focus will be on core, which is projected to show a little more pressure than core CPI at 0.4% m/m to push the y/y to 4.1% from 3.9%. Energy and commodity prices will be the primary factor, but there should also be a drop in Portfolio Management Fees that feed into the core PCE Deflator, while medical related elements may see some upward pressure. The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey is seen posting a modest setback to 97.9 from 98.8, though the volatile Economic Outlook sub-index will likely be pivotal, even if this is generally more a reflection of political rather than economic views.

* UK: Base and Easter timing effects accounted for much of the improvement in the BRC Retail Sales monitor, while a relatively sharp -3.3% y/y drop in spending on travel and travel related goods prompted the slight setback in Barclaycard Consumer Spending, with the sharp rise in fuel costs also dampening household outlays.

* IMF/World Bank spring meetings, there are the run of forecast updates, but these will be little more than educated ‘guesstimates’. Of far more importance will be the IMF Financial Stability Report today and Fiscal Monitor tomorrow, which will likely highlight a large array of risks, not only related to rising inflation and supply chain disruptions, but also the limited scope for fiscal policy to lean against these due to already heavy sovereign debt burdens, as well as the AI related debt binge, and increasingly private credit market risks.