Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
European confidence surveys, Brazil inflation and US weekly jobless claims unlikely to distract much from continued focus on Middle East conflict; Norway rate decision and further barrage of central bank speakers also in view.
- Norges Bank signal on imminent rate hike underlines a much more proactive policy stance from developed world central banks
- Physical premiums and futures curve shifts now as important as spot or benchmark futures price gyrations
EVENTS PREVIEW
Markets remain bound to the ugly spectre of the Middle East conflict and any related news, with continued volatility backed into the equation. The day’s schedule of data is not likely to impinge on price action for more than a passing moment, with the overnight run of German, French and Italian confidence surveys offering no surprises, perhaps notable for further signals that the manufacturing sector at the current juncture views the conflict more as an opportunity above all for reconstruction when and if a ceasefire is agreed, though escalating input costs would make this a more nuanced benefit, even if it would typically allow for better (premium) margins.
The remaining schedule has Brazilian inflation and US weekly jobless claims, and a further barrage of central bank speakers. But perhaps more poignant in the context of the outlook for developed world interest rates are the comments from Norway’s central bank signalling a rate hike at ‘one of forthcoming meetings’, reinforcing the view that central banks are going to be proactive on rates, which in theory should serve to temper markets’ risk appetite. Eminently, they will be aware that they will need to be very vigilant about the array of risks to financial stability, of which there are many, and this will likely restrain them from making aggressive moves, the need for which should be at least partially obviated by taking a proactive stance.
In the commodity sector, a more granular analysis of physical price premiums (leaving aside freight and insurance premia), as well as shifts in futures curves is becoming as much an imperative as keeping a watch on benchmark spot rates and benchmark futures.
To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2026 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
ADM Named to FORTUNE’s Most Admired Company List
January 23, 2026
