Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
CRUDE OIL
February Crude Oil was slightly higher early Friday, reaching its highest level since December 9 but then reversed lowed and fell below Wednesday’s low. The market may have gotten a boost on news that the US had initiated airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Nigeria on Thursday, but this was reported to be was in coordination with the Nigerian government, which also limits the geopolitical concern, especially since it does not appear that crude pipelines or oil terminals were affected. The US administration has also ordered military forces to focus on a quarantine of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, which indicates they are focusing primarily on economic pressure rather than military for now. This lowers the geopolitical concern slightly, but it still limits Venezuelan supply. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said on Friday that he hopes to meet with President Trump soon.
PRODUCTS
Like Crude Oil, February RBOB reversed lower on Friday after a starting off high, but low volume trade may limit the veracity of this indicator.
NATURAL GAS
February Natural Gas was above Wednesday’s close early Friday but short of the high from that day. The weather forecast looks a little less chilly than Wednesday’s outlook, with the 6-10-day showing below normal or near normal temperatures in the northern Plains, the Great Lakes, and eastern Midwest out to the East Coast, with the rest of the lower 48 above normal. The severity of the cold has been reduced, which reduces the chances of a tightening supply. LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 states has reached a record 109.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in December, surpassing the record 109.6 bcfd in November.
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