Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
SOYBEANS
The soy complex has weakened significantly since Friday morning’s Trump/Xi call, which failed to include any discussions about agricultural products. This quickly shifted the edge to the bears, as prices closed poorly on Friday and hit a five-week low overnight. The leaders will meet again in early November at the APEC summit in South Korea, but it’s looking increasingly likely that any trade deal may be pushed into early 2026, which raises significant concerns about whether the USDA’s new crop export projection is too high.
SOYBEAN MEAL
The soymeal market dropped below its recent consolidation, and December futures hit their lowest price level since August 1st. Weakness in beans is pressuring soymeal, following the lack of Ag product discussions in Friday’s call between President Trump and Xi. The completion of any trade deal with China appears to be months away, and the US risks missing out entirely on the typical China demand window for US beans, which runs from September through January.
CORN
The corn market closed on a downbeat note Friday and is weakening again this morning, taking out last week’s lows. The US harvest is moving forward, and spillover weakness from beans gives the edge to the bears. The 6 to 10-day outlook shifts to a much drier pattern across the Midwest, which will significantly improve harvest conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal for the next 2 weeks with no frost potential. Wet season rains are finally expected to arrive in Brazil this week which will also improve planting conditions there.
WHEAT
Wheat performed poorly in the second half of last week and has continued lower this morning, favoring the bear side. There is limited bullish fresh news over the weekend, and burdensome global supplies continue to be the major bearish issue. SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in September to remain slower than normal at 4.2 million tonnes, down from 4.4 million tonnes in August. Ukraine’s exports for the marketing year so far remain slow at 4.02 million tonnes, down from 5.59 million last year, highlighting the tepid global demand.
CATTLE
The cattle complex ended last week on a strong note and have started higher again this morning, keeping the bull trend alive. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was slightly favorable, with on-feed and placement numbers slightly below expectations. The USDA announced a new screwworm detection just 70 miles south of the US border in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, the northernmost detection so far. Nuevo Leon is on a major highway to the US border and represents a significant risk as the pest could easily hitchhike a ride into US territory.
HOGS
December hogs had a relatively wide trading range on Friday but closed near unchanged. The longer-term uptrend remains intact despite the minor pullback last week. The USDA Ag Secretary said the Taiwanese delegation agreed to $10 billion of soybeans, corn, and beef purchases over the next four years, but no mention was made of pork. Commitments of Traders data showed that Managed Money increased its already large net long position by 5.8% to a record high as of last Tuesday.
MILK CLASS III
October Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly gain after climbing up to a 3-week high on Thursday.
ENERGIES
November Crude is lower this morning, as prospects of amply OPEC supply more than compensate for ideas of limited supply off new Russian sanctions. Iraq’s oil ministry said the nation exported 3.38 million barrels per day in August, and the state oil marketer expects exports to reach 3.4 to 3.45 million in September. Iraq is OPEC’s biggest overproducer and is under pressure to cut output, but the Prime Minister said earlier this month that he hoped fellow producers would reconsider Iraq’s quota to better reflect its capacity. Also, Sources told Reuters that the Iraqi government has given preliminary approval to a plan to resume pipeline oil exports from Kurdistan through Turkey after several delays. This could add at least 230,000 bpd of additional supply.
Product prices are under pressure from the decline in crude oil and the expectations for ample OPEC+ supply.
November Natural Gas fell to its lowest level since August 27 overnight and was approaching the contract’s 2 ½ year lows from August 25. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have above normal temperatures continuing across the Lower 48 out through October 5. This will postpone the start of the heating season and will likely could more than offset a late season boost in cooling demand. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, to hold at 103.0 bcfd this week and next before sliding to 101.8 bcfd in two weeks.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD index weakened to kickoff the week as investors await comments from several Fed officials throughout the week to better gauge the policy outlook after the bank cut rates last week.
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower overnight with rainfall patterns continuing to improve in west Africa. World Weather Inc. says routine rainfall is likely during the coming week to 10 days from Ivory Coast to Nigeria and Cameroon. All production areas will eventually be impacted and many will get rain multiple times. They say the precipitation will be sufficient in maintaining an improving trend in soil moisture and crop development after a delay in the start of the second rainy season.
COFFEE
The nearby contract chart in nearby NY coffee produced a key reversal lower last week, which could spell the end of the long-term rally. The 50% tariff on Brazilian imports into the US has supported a rally to new contract highs in the December contract but the nearby chart failed to take out the high from February. The selloff last was instigated by increases in exchange margin requirements, but it is also possible that traders started to worry that the tariff theme had played itself out. Brazil’s crop may be smaller this year, but they still have to sell it.
COTTON
December Cotton is lower this morning and is approaching the five-month lows from earlier in September. The US crop appears in good shape, especially in Texas. Growing conditions in China appear to be good as well, which could limit their import needs. The US export sales report on Thursday was a modest improvement on the previous week but was not very inspiring, and export prospects were not helped by the recovery rally in the dollar last week. The report showed net cotton sales for the week ending September 11 at 205,155 bales, up from 129,598 the previous week but below the 244,971 from two weeks prior.
SUGAR
March Sugar is back lower this morning following a modest bounce off contact lows on Thursday. The Brazilian cane crop is performing much better than it appeared to be earlier this summer, and there are strong expectations for the crops in India and Thailand. Last week, Indian sugar producers were asking the government to expand next year’s export quota to 2 million metric tons for 2025/26 from 1 million last year.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold futures are higher with December contracts rallying to over $3,750 a troy ounce, buoyed by expectations of further rate cuts out of the Fed ahead of speeches from several Fed officials this week and Friday’s PCE inflation data.
Silver futures are higher, with spot silver rising above a 14-year high.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was little changed in official open-outcry trading at $9,995 a metric ton after edging up 0.5% on Friday as climbing inventories weighed against Chinese restocking. Copper inventories in warehouses certified by the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed by 12.5% to the highest since early June at 105,814 tons, weekly data showed on Friday.
EQUITIES
Stock index futures fell lower across the board as markets look ahead to several speeches from Fed officials and a string of data out later in the week with no new data out Monday. The Main focus will be on Friday’s PCE inflation figures for August. PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will be keenly watched as markets continue to gauge the extent to which tariffs have increased inflation.
INTEREST RATES
Futures are higher across the board as markets await speeches from several Fed officials throughout the week, who are expected to explain their outlook on inflation and the labor market.
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