Wkly Futures Market Summary For 9.15.2025

September 15, 2025
ADMIS Research Team
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SOYBEANS

The soy complex is pulling back modestly this morning after a strong reaction to the mostly neutral USDA supply and demand report on Friday. Part of Friday’s strength came from the anticipation that Chinese and US officials would meet early this week in Madrid, as well as reports that trade talks have restarted with India. Furthermore, Taiwan is sending a delegation to the US to discuss potential additional soy purchases.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Soymeal prices are starting the week within the range of the last several sessions, despite soybean prices breaking out to the upside following the September USDA supply and demand report. The 2024/25 meal balance sheet featured larger exports, but also larger production and imports, which left ending stocks unchanged from the previous month. The new crop balance sheet showed a significant increase in exports, but this was offset by larger production, which also kept ending stocks unchanged from the prior month.

CORN

December corn closed on an upbeat note on Friday, hitting its highest level since July 3rd, following a slightly bearish report from the USDA. Old crop ending stocks rose 20 million bushels, but the main surprise in the report was another significant increase of 1.3 million harvested acres for the 2nd month in a row. USDA raised new crop exports by 100 million bushels, which kept ending stocks from rising further. Global stocks were mixed, with a 3 million tonne increase in Brazil’s crop but a 2.7 million tonne decrease for the EU. China cut its corn import forecast for the season to 3 million tonnes, down from 7 million last month.

WHEAT

Most analysts expected few changes to the USDA’s supply and demand balance sheet on Friday, but the report did show an increase in exports of 25 million bushels, which pulled ending stocks down lower than expected. However, not unexpectedly, the USDA raised Russian, Australian, EU, Canadian, and Ukrainian wheat production, boosting global production by 10 million tonnes. Global feed use and exports increased, resulting in a 4 million tonne net increase in world ending stocks, which was higher than expected. Unlike corn and beans, wheat prices were unable to generate any upside momentum post-report. Reuters is reporting that Russia is circumventing sanctions by shifting toward a bartering system and is looking to export wheat to China in exchange for Chinese vehicles.

CATTLE

The cattle complex closed near the lows of the week on Friday as long liquidation and profit-taking were the feature during the second half of last week. A poor weekly close may encourage additional liquidation this week as the strong upside momentum since early July has begun to fade. However, with cash prices near steady last week, retail demand holding up, and cattle supply tightness expected to continue, expectations are low that a long-term top has been reached.

HOGS

December hogs pulled back Friday from new contract highs early in the session on profit-taking before the weekend. Open interest continued its steady rise, gaining another 4,856 contracts. Commitments of Traders data showed Managed Money traders increased their net long position by 8.5%.

MILK CLASS III

October Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly loss after falling to a contract low on Friday.

ENERGIES

November Crude Oil was higher overnight but inside Friday’s range, drawing support from news that a Ukraine drone attack hit the Kirishi oil refinery in northwest Russia overnight sparked a fire there. Ukraine is targeting Russian oil infrastructure, which keeps the threat to Russian oil supply in the news. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated that the most effective sanctions – the sanctions that work the fastest – are firing on Russian oil plants, on their terminals, on their oil depots. Kirishi refines about 17.7 million metric tons per year (355,000 barrels per day) of Russian crude, or 6.4% of the country’s total.

November Natural Gas made extended last week’s selloff very slightly. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for above and much above normal temperatures over most of the US, which could provided some late season cooling demand, which could improve overall demand numbers from last week. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise to 102.6 bcfd this week from 101. However, the warm temperatures will also delay the more natural-gas energy heating consumption in the north. China’s natural gas production increased 5.9% year on year to 21.2 billion cubic meters in August, with output from January to August rising 6.1% to 173.7 billion cubic meters, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

DOLLAR INDEX

The USD index is lower ahead of the Fed’s meeting this week where it is expected that the bank will cut rates by 25 bps. Markets have fully priced in a 25 bp rate cut and are pricing in an 84.5% chance of another cut in October.

COCOA

December Cocoa was slightly higher despite indications that West Africa is finally getting the rain it has missed for the past several weeks. ICE stocks continue to decline, and the trade is awaiting the arrival of the main crop, which should be starting soon. The new marketing year begins October 1.

COFFEE

December Coffee pushed through its April contract highs overnight, as there seem to be no end in sight for the 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. Last week it was reported that Brazil’s coffee exports to the US fell 46% below year ago levels in August. ICE certified stocks continue to decline.

COTTON

December Cotton is lower this morning but inside yesterday’s range. The USDA Supply/Demand report had US 2025/26 production and ending stocks coming in below expectations, but they were also left unchanged from the previous month, which was hardly a bullish outcome. World ending stocks came in below expectations and down from the previous month, but that was thanks in part to an increase in 2024/25 demand that lowered ending stocks for 2024/25.

SUGAR

There has been no indication that UNICA will release its Brazilian Sugar production report for the second half of August today. A survey conducted by S&P Global last week called for production to come in at 3.8 million metric tons, which would be up 17.3% from a year ago. First-half August production was 3.615 million tons, up 16.0% from the same period last year.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold futures are little changed but found support following a surprisingly weak NY Empire State Manufacturing reading that saw the index fall to -8.7 vs. expectations of 4.3. Traders have likely refrained from entering in new positions ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting this week, where it is widely expected that the bank will cut rates by 25 bps.

Silver futures fell lower as markets await the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday.

Copper prices held steady at the LME with three-month copper edging up 0.1% to $10,73 earlier this morning while US futures rose 0.3% following a slate of weak data from top metals consumer China. Data showed growth in China’s retail sales, industrial production, and investment all slowed, while unemployment ticked up as the housing market continues to struggle.

EQUITIES

Stock index futures edged higher as markets kickoff the week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Weak labor market data paired with inflation readings that have shown inflation has not surged as much as initially feared have led markets to fully price in a rate with markets pricing in an 84.5% chance of an additional cut in October.

INTEREST RATES

Futures edged lower across the curve with yields steady. Traders are likely reluctant to take up new positions ahead of the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, where it is expected that the bank will cut rates by 25 bps.

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