Wkly Futures Market Summary For 4.13.2026

CRUDE OIL

With a major rally to start the new trading week it is very clear that the world perceives a dramatic extension of Middle East shipping delays. In fact, recent events have escalated the prospect of oil production/export setbacks among Iranian neighbors as Iran has threatened to attack port facilities in the region if the US blockades it supports. In other words, in addition to the delay of supply from a blocking of transport, damage to export facilities in Qatar, Iraq, UAE, and perhaps even Saudi Arabia could impound supply flow for an indeterminate amount of time. Adding into the bullish vibe is all-time record high European crude prices near $150 per barrel which in turn shows supply anxieties are through the roof. 

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas prices were able to rebound from Friday’s 2026 low with moderate gains early in today’s trading, but they remain firmly at the bottom of their March/April downtrend. The latest 8 to 14-day forecast calls for above-normal temperatures across large portions of the lower 48 states, which will reduce power plant demand for natural gas over that timeframe. Qatar’s LNG exports have been shut off for seven weeks, and their output has been sharply reduced due to damage to their production facilities, and that continues to underpin natural gas prices. However, the seasonal shift towards milder weather across the Northern Hemisphere has reduced the impact of the Qatari supply bottleneck on global LNG near-term supply as natural gas storage normally increases during the second quarter.

DOLLAR INDEX

The USD index is 0.32% higher at 98.97 as demand for dollar liquidity rises following the failure of peace talks between the US and Iran over the weekend.  Developments in the Middle East continue to have an outsized impact on price direction in currency markets. The conflict has evidenced that the dollar remains a preferred safe haven asset for investors, a theme that is likely to continue as hostilities between the two warring countries continues.

COCOA

While the cocoa market has managed to grind higher over the last five trading sessions and the buying took place on a notable increase in trading volume, it appears the trade currently sees cocoa as undervalued. Clearly, the upward track will see headwinds from deteriorating global economic sentiment and the potential for Dollar strength. However, the Ivory Coast cocoa regulator has announced a buyback of 23,830 metric tons of cocoa beans to alleviate a severe shortage of domestic inventories and while that provides near term support from a lock up of supply that action will facilitate selling and delivery of Ivory Coast beans down the road.

COFFEE

With a 4th straight day of higher highs, a clear pattern of increased trading volume and the regaining of the 50 day moving average last week, the path of least resistance is up in coffee. The market should draft additional support from production concerns in Columbia from significant rainfall which apparently reduced March production by a whopping 29%. According to the National Federation of Coffee Growers Colombian coffee production last month was only 754,060 kg bags relative to March 2025 production of 1.06 million bags. However, the threat against Colombian coffee production is not a recent phenomenon with a downtrend in monthly production seen over the last year.

COTTON

With another higher high for the move and the highest trade in cotton since June 2024, the cotton market has become the “leader” of the soft commodity markets. It goes without saying that cotton has been a perennial bear market leader in the soft markets for years but both supply and demand fundamentals have clearly shifted in favor of the bull camp. In fact, China has raised its April 2025/2026 cotton consumption by 200,000 metric tons to 7.8 million metric tons.

SUGAR

Just as cotton has become the leader of the soft commodity markets, the sugar market now looks to be the most vulnerable to further price declines. Clearly, excess supply continues to dominate sugar with large Asian production expectations overtaking slack demand in that region. Along those lines the Chinese agriculture Ministry left their 2025/2026 sugar consumption unchanged at 15.7 million tons compared to 15.5 million tons in the 2023/2024 crop year. Weakness in sugar is particularly surprising in the face of the explosion in energy prices as extreme global gasoline supply tightness should explode the crush of sugar for high-grade ethanol blends.

PRECIOUS METALS

April COMEX contracts are down 0.70% to $4,762 as oil prices remain elevated, while safe haven demand lifts the dollar. While March’s core CPI reading of 2.6% YoY confirms that energy-driven inflation has not yet penetrated underlying price pressures, the escalatory trajectory of the conflict creates upside risks to inflation and Fed policy, creating headwinds for gold.

Copper prices rose on the LME to start the trading day with benchmark three-month copper on the LME up 0.3% to $12,880. The macro backdrop for copper remains caught between a drag on demand from higher energy prices and firmed demand in top consumer China.

EQUITIES

Risk sentiment has soured materially following the collapse of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad and President Trump’s subsequent order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Equity index futures are broadly lower, oil prices have surged 7%–8%, and safe-haven demand has lifted the US dollar. While March’s core CPI reading of 2.6% YoY confirms that energy-driven inflation has not yet penetrated underlying price pressures, the escalatory trajectory of the conflict creates persistent headwinds for equities.

INTEREST RATES

Yields are little changed across the curve in response to this weekend’s developments, though market-implied odds for the Fed still favor no policy action in 2026. Longer-run inflation expectations at the time-being offer resistance to higher yields as the Fed should remain biased towards policy-easing given the weaker labor market.