Wkly Futures Market Summary For 3.24.2025

March 24, 2025
ADMIS Research Team
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SOYBEANS

The soy complex is having a dull start to the week as broader tariff concerns, the final quarter of the Brazilian harvest, and sideways technical action keep both bull and bear camps neutral. A week from today, the USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Acreage reports, with nearly all analysts expecting a large decrease in bean acres in favor of corn.

SOYBEAN MEAL

The soymeal market saw choppy conditions during the second half of last week, and traders are hesitant to take aggressive positions ahead of the April 2nd tariff deadline. Next Monday, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Acreage reports, which are expected to show a sizable decrease in US soybean acres this spring. This week, the US is expected to begin trade negotiations with China, although a high-level meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi is not imminent. Because Brazil has plenty of available supplies, it is unlikely China will see any significant urgency to get a deal done quickly with the US. However, China knows Brazil’s exportable supplies will dwindle by late summer.

CORN

The corn market is drifting lower to start the week despite US corn being the cheapest in the world. Unfortunately, tariff concerns for the three largest buyers of US Ag goods (Mexico, Canada, and China) are hard to overcome without some offsetting bullish news. In addition, much of Brazil is forecast to see beneficial rains, except for Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. No extreme heat is expected across the Brazilian crop areas. One of the benefits of Trump’s tariff policy is that some countries are looking for ways to increase their purchases of US Ag products to narrow their trade surplus. Taiwan will be sending a delegation to the US in September for that reason.

WHEAT

There is weaker action in the wheat market to start the week as a cease-fire deal between Ukraine and Russia appears to be inching closer, with talks ongoing over the weekend in Saudi Arabia. In addition, the Kremlin said reviving the Black Sea grain deal will be a key topic in the discussions, which may also be weighing on the market today.

CATTLE

New all-time highs were seen across the cattle complex early Friday, but prices turned lower late in the day despite cash trade coming in much stronger than the prior week. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was notably bullish, with a massive drop in placements year-over-year. However, much of that decline was expected, and cattle prices before the report had rallied sharply, pricing in at least some of the report’s bullishness.

HOGS

June hogs closed strong Friday but were down moderately on the week. The cash index was slightly lower, and futures trading volume was rather light. The Quarterly Hog and Pig report will be released Thursday afternoon. Also, traders will watch for any tariff headlines as April 2 approaches, which may support more sideways action early this week.

MILK CLASS III

May Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly loss after falling to a new contract low on Friday.

ENERGIES

May Crude Oil extended last weeks’ gains overnight as the market continued to correct its selloff from the January highs. It could be drawing support today on reports of another Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure overnight, with the Russian military claiming that Ukraine attempted an attack on the Kropotkinskaya pumping station on the CPC pipeline in Russia’s Krasnodar region. US and Russian officials began talks in Saudi Arabia today that are expected to focus on a Black Sea maritime ceasefire deal.

May Natural Gas was lower overnight, with a generally mild weather forecast limiting the potential for US heating demand. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast showed mostly above normal temperatures across the lower 48. LSEG said its temperature modelling came in up to 1 degree higher on Monday morning compared to last Friday. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US natural gas rigs in operation were up 2 rigs to 102 last week.

DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is steady, although interest rate differentials remain bearish for the greenback.

COCOA

May Cocoa is higher this morning after falling below the 200-day moving average for the first time since October on Friday. As in October, the market failed to close below that line on Friday and subsequently bounced off that level. Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 13,000 metric tons for the week ending March 23, down from 14,000 the previous week. Cumulative arrivals for 2024/25 have reached 1.414 million tons, up from 1.284 million a year ago but below the five-year average of 1.596 million. This is the second lowest cumulative number in at least six years.

COFFEE

The coffee market was higher overnight as it continued to draw support from dry conditions in Brazil. World Weather Service said a small portion of Brazil’s coffee region saw rain over the weekend but that most coverage was light and not well distributed. They expect some rain later this week that could temporarily boost moisture, but they don’t expect a big change in trend

COTTON

May Cotton extended Friday’s range-down action overnight but is back near unchanged this morning. A lower dollar, higher equities, and higher crude oil prices all lend outside-market support. Traders were clearly disappointed with the market’s failure at the 50-day moving average last Monday and the disappointing export sales report last Thursday added to the pessimism.

SUGAR

May Sugar was lower overnight having once again backed off from the 20-cent level. The market traded above that price four days last week but never closed above it.

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold futures are higher on Monday despite other flight to quality vehicles, such as the interest rate market futures, being liquidated in light of more encouraging news on the tariff situation. Traders hope the new U.S. tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 2 could be softer and more targeted than initially anticipated.

May silver futures are higher, breaking a three-day losing streak as demand for safe-haven assets increased in light of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty in the US.

May copper futures are higher and are approaching record highs due to new stimulus measures in China.

EQUITIES

S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow futures gapped higher on Monday and remain above major downtrend lines.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are lower across the board as flight to quality longs are liquidated.

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