Wkly Futures Market Summary For 3.2.2026

March 2, 2026
ADMIS Research Team
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SOYBEANS

In the soy complex, weekend geopolitical news and crude oil strength led to a sharp overnight gap higher in bean oil to a 2-year high, while meal weakened. Beans opened stronger and briefly took out the 2025 highs, but have pulled back into negative territory this morning. Traders are grappling with whether the Iran attacks lower the odds of China buying the 8 million tonnes of US beans that President Trump said they were considering a couple of weeks ago. Unsurprisingly, China has condemned the attack on Iran, and traders need to be wary of the headline risk if China puts out something saying the meeting in early April is in jeopardy.

SOYBEAN MEAL

The meal market is starting the week significantly weaker as bean oil, supported by a strong rally in crude oil due to the Iran attacks, gapped higher overnight, resulting in heavy long oil/short meal spreading. Bean oil is significantly overbought, and a pullback this week could reinvigorate fund buying in soymeal.

CORN

Corn is under mild pressure this morning, which feels like a slight disappointment for the bulls, given that crude oil is nearly $4 higher. The market opened at a new 6-week high overnight but has been unable to hold the gains. However, there is plenty of day left for a recovery.

WHEAT

Wheat was the star performer on Friday, and extended the gains overnight to their highest level since July 11 of last year. Geopolitical risk in the Mideast is the major bullish driver, along with strong technical action.

CATTLE

The cattle complex was sharply lower on Friday for a 2nd consecutive day, and this morning’s opening is likely to be weak as well. The stock market continues to selloff today after a poor finish last week. Outside market factors may result in further long liquidation today, and the bears retain the edge.

HOGS

Hogs closed unchanged on Friday, and open interest increased by just over 2,000 contracts. Weekly export sales on Thursday were very strong, the highest weekly reading since the 1st of the year. Mexico was the largest buyer. Last week’s slaughter was unchanged from a year ago. There was no further ASF news out of Spain over the weekend.

MILK CLASS III

April Class III milk finished last week with a modest loss after climbing to a 3-week high on Wednesday.

ENERGIES

April Crude oil was sharpy higher early Monday as traders reacted to the US and Israel action against Iran over the weekend. The conflict widened overnight, with Iran proxy Hezbollah launching drones at Israel from Lebanon and Isreal responding. Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel, Gulf states and a British air base in Cyprus, and they seem to be intent on in on attacking Gulf oil infrastructure. This is not winning them any support from Gulf States, not only from US ally Saudi Arabia, but other states that have been more cooperative with Iran, such as Qatar and Oman, which will isolate Iran even further.

Like crude oil, product prices were sharply higher overnight in reaction to the US attacks on Iran over the weekend, with ULSD reacting more dramatically than gasoline. US Gasoline stocks are near record levels. Distillate stocks are not. On a percentage of supply basis, military operations are likely to require more diesel than gasoline. On the other hand, the driving season is ahead of us, and we are passing through the heating season.

The US attack on Iran is supporting gas today. Israeli gas fields have suspended operations, and LNG shipping out of the Persian Gulf have ground to a halt. Qatar Energy announced it is shutting down all natural gas facilities for the time being. They represent 20% of all LNG exports.

DOLLAR INDEX

The US dollar leapt higher overnight in a classic flight to quality reaction to the US and Israel attacks on Iran, but expecting the dollar to extend beyond the overnight high probably requires better than expected data from the US jobs front.

COCOA

May Cocoa was moved into positive territory early Monday after starting off the session at new contract lows. There may be some idea that Ivory Coast’s decision last week to move up the start of the mid-crop to March, which effectively lower the official farmgate price, may finally get some of their of the crops sold and start to relieve their burdensome supplies. The market may also be reacting to the sharply higher crude oil and natural gas prices this morning, as that raises the cost of shipping and the cost of fertilizer.

COFFEE

May Coffee was near unchanged early Monday as it held inside a trading range that has defined this market for almost two weeks. The market is inside a trading range from last July bound by 288.65 and 262.60, which is providing support after the selloff in late January. The market has been under pressure as seasonal rainfall has arrived in Brazil to boost expectations for the upcoming crop.

COTTON

May Cotton is lower this morning following a disappointing performance last week after it had achieve its highest level since late January. The market had reached an oversold technical condition at its February lows, and the fund net short was approaching a record level prior to the short covering rally on February 17. New contract lows were not a comfortable place ahead of the growing season, especially with Texas trending dry going into plantings. Last week’s export sales report may have been disappointing after the record sales from the previous week.

SUGAR

May Sugar reached its highest level since late January early Monday but has given up a good portion of the gains. The market opened up strong on ideas that sharply higher crude oil and gasoline prices will spark a greater interest in crushing cane for ethanol at the expense of sugar, especially in Brazil.

PRECIOUS METALS

The bull camp could not have written a more powerful bullish script than an attack of a key oil producer, especially with Iran attacking neighboring countries in an apparent attempt to widen the conflict or spark global ire against the US and Israel. Clearly, gold and silver are undeterred by the sharp range up move in the dollar overnight perhaps because of the sharp decline in global interest rates and the prospects of a major disruption of global oil flow.

Not surprisingly the copper market has not forged a “higher high” in the early action today as global economic sentiment is injured by fighting in the Middle East

EQUITIES

With US equities damaging their charts last week, negative residual AI buzz, ongoing Middle East military action, sharp losses in airlines stocks and fresh inflation concerns from $75 oil, the path of least resistance is clearly pointing down.

INTEREST RATES

Treasury bonds have streaked higher given the rapid escalation of economic uncertainty following the strikes against Iran and what could now be labeled as a “regional conflict” (as Iran has lashed out at neighboring countries via missile attacks). Therefore, the upside breakout in treasuries (which matches the highest trade since last April) is clearly justified, especially given the backdrop of generally soft global data and very sharp gains in many flight to quality instruments.

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