Wkly Futures Market Summary For 11.18.24

SOYBEANS

Beans are starting the week with a weaker tone on generally favorable South American conditions. A couple of bullish items were out Friday, including NOPA October crush setting a new record at 199.9 million bushels, compared to a 196.8 million estimate and bean oil stocks were 1.069 billion pounds, down from the pre-report guess of 1.090 billion, and the China finance ministry canceling the 13% export tax rebate on used cooking oil starting December 1. This will encourage fewer UCO exports to the US and more Chinese domestic use.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Soymeal started the week unchanged, after falling each day last week except for Friday. This week, more sideways/lower action may be in store as good South American weather keeps pressure on the soybean market and tightening global vegoil supplies support soyoil prices with meal caught in the middle. Over the weekend, China’s finance ministry said that on December 1, they would end the export tax rebate on used cooking oil (UCO). This will slow UCO exports to the US and encourage more domestic soyoil usage.

CORN

There is limited new news for corn to start the week, and prices are hovering near unchanged. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed Managed Money traders with their largest net long since February 2023, buying a significant 88,000 contracts as of Tuesday last week.

WHEAT

Wheat prices started the week higher overnight after President Biden approved Ukraine’s use of US longer-range missiles against Russia. Russia is likely moving its assets further away from the border for protection, and we doubt the approval will be a game changer for Ukraine. However, the move may improve Ukraine’s negotiating position. Wheat prices would likely be even higher on the missile news except the southern Plains is seeing another round of beneficial precipitation

CATTLE

December live cattle closed unchanged Friday, which was disappointing after an early-session rally. The technical outlook remains weak and calls for a further pullback to at least 50% retracement support at 181.65 and possibly 61.8% retracement support at 179.70.

HOGS

December hogs finished last Friday at a 3-week low, and prices closed below key 20-day moving average support, which has supported breaks since mid-August. CFTC data showed funds added to their record long as of Tuesday of last week, although the break in the 2nd half of last week likely encouraged some long liquidation.

MILK CLASS III

December Class III milk finished last week with a moderate loss after rebounding from a 6 1/2-month low on Friday. Last week’s lower close makes it four weekly lower closes in a row.