Wkly Futures Market Summary For 10.14.2025

ENERGIES

December Crude Oil took out Friday’s low overnight and traded to its lowest level since May 7. An update from IEA said world oil supply will rise by 3.0 million barrels per day in 2025, up from 2.7 million bpd previously forecast, with another 2.4 million bpd increase next year. IEA also lowered its forecast for world demand growth this year to 710,000 bpd from 740,000 in its previous forecast. OPEC left its demand forecast for 2025 unchanged at +1.3 million bpd.

December Natural Gas is approaching its August low this morning. Above-normal temperatures remain in the forecast for much of the northern US, which will limit heating demand. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show above normal temperatures continuing over the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48, from the Great Plains to the East Coast. A mostly below normal pattern is expected to continue in west of the Rockies.

DOLLAR INDEX

Surprisingly, the dollar appears to maintain a bullish track despite another failed attempt to reopen the government and in the face of comments from the Fed’s Paulson who anticipates at least two more US rate cuts to support the US jobs market. Perhaps the dollar is garnering some support from weaker global data from the UK and Europe.

COCOA

December Cocoa is hovering around unchanged today and inside yesterday’s move to its lowest level since last November. The market has been under pressure lately on ideas that recent increases in official farmgate prices for Ivory Coast and Ghana will encourage strong arrivals and that generally benign weather will produce a strong main crop, which has just begun to arrive, as well as a decent mid-crop in 2026. However, port arrivals in Ivory Coast have started out slow.

COFFEE

December Coffee broke out above a two week range overnight and traded to its highest level since September 18. Perhaps traders are getting frustrated with the lack of updates on the potential meeting between President Trump and the president of Brazil. In the meantime, ICE exchange stocks continue to fall.

COTTON

SUGAR

March Sugar extended yesterday’s selloff overnight and traded to another new contract low. On top of strong crops expected out of Thailand and India and an improving crop in Brazil, France revised its beet forecast higher today. Their farm ministry forecast that nation’s sugar beet output for 2025 at 34.2 million metric tons, up from 31.8 million in last month’s update. This would be 5% above the 2024 harvest and 10% above the five-year average and is despite a decline in planted area. The next UNICA report of Brazilian center-south sugar production (for the second half of September) is expected to be released this week.

PRECIOUS METALS

With both gold and silver posting new all-time high prices this morning bullish sentiment continues to burn hot. While we suspect an “investing trend” is still the primary fuel for the current leg up, “tit-for-tat” US/Chinese port fee levies have escalated the trade war and in turn boosted flight to quality buying. Even the central bank gold buying theme is present this morning with talk of ongoing central bank gold buying from the World Gold Council last week prompting some traders to suggest central bankers are increasing gold holdings at the expense of foreign sovereign debt holdings.

In retrospect, after several weeks of definitive upside action, the copper market appears to have forged a technical blowoff top following last week’s explosion. Furthermore, the market has displayed four straight sessions of very wide trading ranges which can be indicative of a market facing significant uncertainty associated with a major trend decision.

EQUITIES

In the early going today US equity markets are giving back more than half of yesterday’s gains with the NASDAQ poised to lose 1% on the opening. Analysts in India described market action there as a “crash” after higher early trade reversed course in the second half of the Tuesday trade. While we see the path of least resistance pointing down in US markets and fear a slight increase in anxiety because of declining favor toward AI/tech issues we do not detect high anxiety at this hour. Not surprisingly US rate cut expectations are nearing 100% (97.2%) for later this month and are very lofty at 92.8% for the December meeting and that supportive force is likely to lose its supportive capacity as it has become a fixture.

INTEREST RATES

With US Chinese trade relations deteriorating by the hour, equity prices off moderately and a lack of guidance on the economy from US scheduled data, December treasury bond prices have broken out to the upside and are approaching a very key seven month high resistance level of 118-21. While overnight US/Chinese trade developments were labeled as “tit-for-tat” by Bloomberg, seeing both countries levy port fees highlights relations are worsening instead of improving. However, Trump and Pres. Xi are still expected to meet in South Korea later this month to discuss trade and that leaves a sliver of hope in an environment deteriorating by the day. Adding to the upward track is comments from the Fed’s Paulson who indicated he expects rate cuts to support the job market.