Wheat & Corn Continue Under Pressure


Grains are lower. SU is down 4 cents and near 13.12. SMU is near 400.0. BOU is near 57.61. CU is down 6 cents and near 5.69. WU is down 21 cents and near 7.79. KWU is down 23 cents and near 8.37. MWU is down 18 cents and near 8.94.

US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold, copper and cotton are higher. Silver, coffee and cocoa are lower.

Wheat and corn futures continues under new pressure in anticipation of UN, Russia and Ukraine signing a deal today to open Ukraine grain exports. Still no details. So far, Russia and Ukraine has not yet commented on any new deal. There remains many logistical issues to actually start shipping grain.

Trade also feels the US 2022 corn crop is made. Over next 2 weeks parts of US Midwest will see .40-1.25 inches of rain, favoring E NE to OH and milder temps. NOAA 30 day and 90 day forecast were warm and dry especially for US 2023 HRW crop planting. CU is near 6 month low. US Central Bank war against inflation continues to weigh on commodity prices. US corn export commit is down 13 pct vs ly. Matif corn futures continue to trade higher and new 1 month high. EU corn crop could be closer to 55 mmt vs USDA 68.  China Dalian corn futures were lower. Brazil corn prices are a discount to US with large 7 mmt vessel corn line up cutting into US sales.

Soybean futures are testing 2022 lows. Concern about lower export demand and US Central Bank war against inflation is weighing on soybean futures. Open interest continues to plunge. US soybean export commit is down 4 pct from ly but new crop commit is still record high. US Sep soybean board crush margin hit 200 last night, up from 135 on June 21. Cash is even higher. Word that Indonesia could remove domestic sales requirement is weighing on Dalian palmoil and soyoil futures and US soyoil futures. Matif and Canada rapeseed futures are also lower.

Wheat bulls continue to be battered by talk that Ukraine exports will open and World Central Banks war against inflation. Still, Matif wheat futures are at 2 week highs. Russia wheat crop could be record but quality could be down. Still hard to estimate Russia export prices with floating export tax and actual exports with uncertainty over vessel freight and insurance. Argentina continues to lower planted wheat acres and crop rating due to dry weather. US wheat export commit is now near ly for this time of the marketing year.

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