Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 2 cents and near 12.82. SMZ is near 390.1. BOZ is near 54.75. CZ is unch and near 4.93. WZ is up 6 cents and near 5.86 KWZ is up 2 cents and near 6.71. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 7.24. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower.
Soybean futures are marginally higher. Lower US supply suggest more importance on 2024 SA weather. North Brazil forecast is dry for the rest of October. Argentina remains dry. Some feel final US soybean crush could be even 60 mil bu higher due to higher soymeal exports and higher domestic soyoil demand. Besides SA weather, trade will be watching China soybean demand and technical signals with SX near the 20 day moving average. SMZ is above the 20 DMA and near the 50 and 100. Next BOZ resistance is near 56.80. Some est US 2024/25 soybean crop near 4,516, crush 2,475, exports 1,720 and end stocks near 450.
Corn futures rallied closer to 5.00 resistance. CZ may have found good support near 4.84. North and central Brazil remains dry while south is too wet. Argentina remains mostly dry. US ethanol margins remain positive. Some feel final US corn could drop 1-2 bu more on the Jan report. US farmer remains slow seller of corn. CZ is above the 20 and 50 DMA. Resistance is still near 5.10-5.20 due to slow demand for US exports. Managed funds reduced a good part of their large net short last week. Some est US 2024/25 corn crop near 15,320, feed/residual 5,900, ethanol 5,400, exports 2,000 and end stocks near 2,763.
Wheat futures are higher and over the 20 day moving ave for first time since early August. Next resistance is 6.00. There is talk of increase China interest in US gulf SRW due to lower Australia wheat supply. Global exporters 2024 carryover will be near 16 year low and 53 mmt. Some est US 2024/25 wheat crop near 1,914, feed/residual 85, food 979, exports 825 and end stocks near 749.
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