Weekly Sugar Wrap
Written by Howard Jenkins, Head of Global Commodities, ADM Investor Services International Limited
The past week has seen further price gains after their improvement from the six week lows the previous week. The continuing strength has been a slight surprise to many given the uncertain macro picture and chatter of possible record production by the two largest producers next season.
The macro has remained volatile as the Covid pandemic rears its ugly head to strike many countries with a second wave of infections. The USD which had few friends at the beginning of the month has seen its biggest weekly gain in almost six months as investors expect more Fed economic support.
So, with the USD strengthening (and BRL weakening) sugar strength must be based on bullish fundamentals? Well, perhaps…..It is dry in Brazil’s main cane regions which might impact on next year’s crop. However, it is helping propel their current harvest to a possible record sugar production. Most cane growers are not concerned – ‘see how things are by November’ is their view. The Indian monsoon is ending with excellent rains allowing record plantings of all crops. Cane planting are up by over 10% suggesting the prospect of record production. The government maybe dithering on next season’s export policy but, ultimately, will need the sugar shifted.
October raws expires next week. Currently, a largish delivery is on the cards with Brazil likely to be the biggest origin. The usual post-expiry debate on whether the size of the delivery is bullish or bearish will ensue enabling brokers to bulk out their reports but, ultimately, the receiver will be bullish while the deliverers will be bearish.
The NY market remains quiet despite the impending expiry suggesting traders remain very uncertain on many levels. Therefore, current levels might be seen as fair value – after all they spent most of 2019 at similar levels.
Contact the ADMISI Sugar Desk team:
Howard Jenkins, Charles Branch, Kevin Watkins, Steven Trigg
Phone: +44(0) 207 716 8598
Registered in England No. 2547805 a subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.