Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2023
November 28, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 4 cents sand near 13.97. SMZ is near 411.7. BOZ is near 73.17. CZ is up 2 cents and near 6.87. WZ is up 8 cents and near 8.49. KWZ is up 6 cents and near 9.47. MWZ is up 6 cents and near 9.58.
Soybeans are higher. There is little farmer selling above the market. There was talk that China bought a few soybean cargoes from Brazil Dec through March and 1 US PNW cargo. Not much to hold SF near 14.00. There were more China Covid cases reported. China has now locked down 28 cities or 200 million people and 25 pct of GDP. Recent selloff in US Dollar and rally in equities and Crude has helped trigger new buying in commodities including metals and soybeans. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 800-1,600 mt vs 2,335 lw. Dryness in Argentina may also be helping soybean prices. Argentina has no soybean export price.
US weekly ethanol production was up 4 pct from last week. Stocks are up 12 pct from last year. US Argentina Ag Attaché lowered the corn crop to 52 mmt vs USDA 55. Argentina saw some rain but forecast is dry. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 350-1,000 mt vs 408 lw. US farmer remains slow in selling corn. Feeders and ethanol bids remain historically high. Low water has river basis historically low. Corn futures waiting for clarity in Ukraine export corridor closing or extension. Some feel there will be a shutoff of new vessels going into Ukraine in 10 days. Deal expires Nov 19. There is no ne Ukraine corn export price. Brazil is cheaper than US.
US south plains, Argentina, EU and Black Sea weather is mostly dry. E Australia is wet. Still, US HRW export prices are $90 over German and $110 over Russia. US SRW is $45 above French and $65 above Russia. Wheat futures price volatility will continue due to concern about South Hemisphere wheat supplies and Black Sea exports. Argentina wheat crop 13.7 vs USDA 17.5.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Trade continues to be push and pulled on earnings reports. Gold, silver, copper and cotton are lower. Coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
