Vietnam, Indonesia Exports Steady

COFFEE

March Coffee made an attempt at last week’s highs early Monday but backed off as the session progressed. Official export data from Vietnam and Indonesia showed both nations are running ahead of year ago levels. Vietnam reported exports of 180,000 metric tons in December (3 million bags), which was up 40.8% from the same period last year. Total exports for 2025 reached 1.58 million tons (26.3 million bags) up 17.5% from a year earlier. Indonesia exported 34,101.7 million tons (568,400 bags) of Sumatra robusta beans in November, up from 21,124.7 million tons (352,100 bags) in November 2024  (+61%). Cumulative exports for January-November 2025 reached 351,595 tons (5.860 million bags), up from 162,585 tons (2.710 million bags) from the same period in 2024, an increase of 116%. London robusta bean prices led the market lower overnight. ICE certified arabica stocks fell 249 bags on Friday to 452,906. Stocks fell 3,571 bags last week. World Weather Inc. said weekend precipitation in coffee areas around the world was mostly good for crops. A boost in precipitation was noted in Brazil that will continue through early this week. Indonesia reported some heavy rain in central Sumatra once again where some local flooding may have resulted.

COCOA

March Cocoa traded inside Friday’s range early Monday, mostly above Friday’s weak close. The market has managed to hold just above the 50-day moving average after falling below it briefly on Friday. Ivory Coast port arrivals were estimated at 43,000 metric tons for the week ending January 4, down from 60,000 the previous week and 55,000 for the same week a year ago. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began on October 1 have reached 1.071 million tons, down from 1.109 million at this point last year and below the five-year average of 1.116 million. It is also the second lowest in the past five years; the lowest was 873,000 at this point in the 2023/24 season. The low arrivals pace could be due to the above average rains over the past few weeks that may have slowed harvest a bit, but it may also be a hangover from some dry conditions earlier in the crop development phase. Ivory Coast farmers have repeatedly expressed optimism over crop prospects later in the season due to the rains. World Weather Inc. says there were a few showers in southern and central parts of Ivory Coast and Ghana over the weekend; most of the resulting rain was light. They expect some rain farther to the north in Ivory Coast and Ghana that would result in some temporary boost in topsoil moisture and possibly a little delay to harvesting, but most of the rain will be light and not very disruptive.  The market was also focused on New York cocoa’s addition to the Bloomberg Commodity Index in this year, with expectations of new long positions of roughly 30,000 to 40,000 this month.

COTTON

March Cotton traded up to (and just above) the 50-day moving average early Monday, drawing support from a better trend in US export sales but still guarded in its expectations. Cumulative sales are still running well behind normal, but the trend has improved recently. The next update from USDA will be released this morning, and it will cover the week ending December 25. This should bring USDA up to date, provided they release the January 1 data this Thursday. Last Wednesday’s update showed net sales of 182,680 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 880 for 2026/27 for a total of 183,560 for the week ending December 18. This was down from 319,649 the previous week, but it was still the second highest since November 13. Cumulative for 2025/26 have reached 6.366 million bales, down from 7.207 million at this time last year and below the five-year average of 9.070 million and still the lowest since 2015/16. Sales have reached 57% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 73% for this point in the marketing year.

SUGAR

March Sugar was higher early Monday but was confined to the lower end of Friday’s range-down action. We expect the UNICA update for Center-South Brazil cane crush and sugar production during the first half of December to be released this week. The last report showed that cumulative production for 2025/26 was running about 1.1% above a year ago. Sugar’s share of crush for the second half of November was 35.5% versus 44.6% for the same period in 2024, as Brazilian crushers are focusing more of their activity on ethanol due to low sugar prices. Traders will also be watching to see if India starts to export more aggressively this month. Last Wednesday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders still held a substantial net short of 153,073 contracts of sugar, which leaves the market vulnerable to short covering. Ukraine’s sugar producers union said on Monday that the nation’s refineries have almost completed white sugar production from the 2025 sugar beet harvest, having process 10.43 million metric tons of sugar beets and refining 1.574 million metric tons of sugar as of January 1. The union had said Ukraine was likely to reduce white sugar production to up to 1.5 million tons in 2025 from 1.8 million tons due to significant stocks and export challenges.

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