Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q1 2025 Results
May 6, 2025
CURRENCY FUTURES
The June U.S. dollar index is higher today, recovering from the previous session’s losses, after President Donald Trump reaffirmed that trade negotiations with China are ongoing.
Retail sales in the U.K. increased by 0.4% month-over-month in March 2025, defying forecasts of a 0.4% decline. This follows a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in the previous month.
The Japanese yen is lower despite news that core consumer prices in Tokyo, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, increased 3.4% in April from a year earlier. This compares to economists’ median estimate for a 3.2% annual advance.
Traders are increasingly betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower interest rates at its May 20 meeting. While a 25 basis-point reduction is widely anticipated, some analysts are pricing in a more aggressive 50 basis-point cut.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
The 9:00 central time April consumer sentiment index is expected to be 50.5.
The technicals are improving for stock index futures. On Wednesday, the June S&P 500 futures advanced above a five-day downtrend line, with a gap higher opening.
Anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year remain an underlying long term supportive influence.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are higher.
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said, “This is not a good time to be pre-emptive” with monetary policy.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined by approximately 5 basis points to 4.36% on Thursday.
The U.S. Treasury will auction seven-year notes today.
Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve will speak at 4:00 PM.
The Federal Open Market Committee will probably keep its fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% at its May 7 policy meeting.
However, the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points three times this year with the first reduction potentially coming at the June 18 policy meeting.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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