Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 2 cents and near 12.83. SMZ is near 378.4. BOZ is near 55.35. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.96. WZ is down 5 cents and near 5.73. KWZ is down 4 cents and near 6.86. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.29. US Dollar is marginally higher. Crude is marginally higher. US stocks are also marginally higher.
Soybean futures are slightly higher. China will be back from Holiday next week. US soybean exports commit is down 32 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 10 pct. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet, slowing plantings and export loadings. US Midwest weather is mostly dry. This should increase harvest pace. Below normal rains continue to lower water levels. World vegoil prices are lower due to concern over China and India demand. US soymeal export demand could increase if SA exporters cannot find necessary sustainability paperwork. SX remains is 12.50-13.10 range, SMZ 370-390 and BOZ 55-57.
Corn futures are slightly lower. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet, slowing plantings and export loadings. US Midwest weather should be mostly dry with should increase harvest. Word that Ukraine vessel hit a mine in Black Sea triggered some short covering. Fact vessel was not damaged is limiting new buying. US corn export commit is up 9ct vs ly vs USDA est of a 23 pct increase. Mexico remains best buy and could be front loading before and new US GMO import restrictions. CZ finally traded over 4.90 but could not close over 5.00. Corn stuck between tight old crop cash supplies and talk US corn yields are better than expected.
Wheat futures are lower. Word that Ukraine vessel hit a mine in Black Sea triggered short covering. Fact vessel was not damaged is limiting new buying. US wheat export commit is down 14 pct vs ly and vs USDA est of down 8 pct. .WZ remains in 5.50-5.80 range with US SRW prices competitive to China. It is dry in US south plains, W Aust, Arg, Black Sea and too wet in S Brazil.
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