Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is lower on limited news, which is a sign of additional weakness.
The euro zone economy unexpectedly stalled in the third quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis the gross domestic product was unchanged in the three months to September of this year. A preliminary report showed 0.1% growth. The market expected a 0.1% increase.
Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the European Central Bank has finished hiking interest rates unless there are major surprises, and the central bank may look at cuts at some point in 2024.
A poll of 90 economists unanimously expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 4.00% at its December 14 policy meeting.
Industrial production in Germany declined 0.4% month-over-month in October 2023, easing from a marginally revised 1.3% drop in September but missing market expectations of a 0.2% increase. This was the fifth consecutive period of declining industrial output.
The Japanese yen advanced after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks made investors believe that the central bank may abandon its negative interest rate policy earlier than anticipated.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed to higher.
U.S. based employers announced plans to cut 45,510 jobs in November 2023, which is higher than the 36,836 cut in October, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Jobless claims in the week ended December 2 were 220,000 when 222,000 were expected.
The 9:00 central time October wholesale inventories report is anticipated to show a 0.2% decline.
The 2:00 October consumer credit report is predicted to show a $9 billion increase.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
There is a growing consensus among analysts that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hiking cycle.
There are no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today, which is in keeping with its self-imposed blackout guideline in advance of its upcoming policy meeting.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 98% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its December 13 policy meeting.
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