UK Retailers Report Weak Nov Sales

CURRENCIES

The U.S. dollar index is lower.

Yesterday’s gains in the greenback were linked to ideas that the U.S. economy will hold up well compared to a deteriorating economic outlook in other parts of the world.

The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to the U.S. dollar, and higher prices are likely, while the fundamentals and technicals remain bearish for the euro currency, and lower prices are likely.

Swiss annual inflation advanced to 0.7% in November from 0.6% the previous month, when the consensus forecast called for an increase of 0.8%. This report increased the probabilities of a bigger interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank on December 12.

U.K. retailers reported lackluster sales in November. Sales volumes declined by 3.3% in the 12 months to November, which is the weakest reading since April when they dropped 4.0%, according to the British Retail Consortium.

It is widely anticipated that the Bank of Canada will reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its December 11 policy meeting.

INTEREST RATES

Futures are higher.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Adriana Kugler at 11:35, Austan Goolsbee at 12:30 and Austan Goolsbee again at 2:45.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak tomorrow at 12:45.

There is a 73% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its December 18 policy meeting, and there is a 27% chance of the FOMC keeping rates unchanged at 4.50% – 4.75%.

It is likely that the FOMC will be slower to add accommodation in 2025 than the consensus view.

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

December S&P 500 futures advanced to a new record high yesterday.

Stock index futures are mixed today.

The 9:00 central time October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is expected to show 7.490 million.

The long term fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.

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