Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 8 cents and near 13.28. SMZ is near 444.1. BOZ is near 51.98. CZ is up 1 cent and near 4.82. WZ is down 4 cents and near 5.70. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 6.38. MWZ is down 3 cents and near 7.16. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Despite fact Israel entered a new phase of the Gaza war with new ground attacks, Crude is lower on feelings the Middle East War could be limited to Gaza.
Soybean futures are higher. There was talk last week that China switched 8-10 Brazil soybean cargoes to US. Higher demand for US soymeal is offering support to soybean futures. Funds were reported higher soymeal longs than expected. Argentina is still out of the soymeal market until 2024 harvest. US soymeal export commit is already 93 pct of last year commit and highest since 2014. SF is above 13.24 resistance. Next resistance is near 13.38.
Corn futures are slightly higher. CZ has been trading between 4.75 and 4.85. Slow US farmer selling is beginning to support basis. Corn futures are supported by talk Ukraine will impose tighter controls over grain exporters to increase revenues to help fund its wartime defenses. Exporters will need to obtain export licenses and prior tax records that go back to before the war. This could slow Ukraine exports.
Wheat futures are lower. WZ remains between 5.50 support and 6.00 resistance. USDA will start weekly WW crop ratings today. Some could see as high as 50 pct G/E and highest since 2019. Wheat futures remain volatile near season lows. Russia est crop near 93 mmt vs USDA 85. Exports could be 1 mmt per week. Ukraine will impose tighter controls over grain exporters to increase revenues to help fund its wartime defenses. Exporters will need to obtain export licenses and prior tax records that go back to before the war. This could slow Ukraine exports. Trade will watch south hemisphere weather and yields for estimate of supplies.
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