Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
Welcome to the Q4 2023 edition of the Ghost In The Machine
Welcome to the Q4 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, as another tumultuous year draws to a close, and uncertainty in both geopolitical and economic terms continues to dominate. A semblance of normality has returned, but stability remains very elusive, as the list of disruptive elements has changed, but not really reduced in numerical terms.
In this edition, there is a deep dive look into one of the significant costs which grain traders now need to manage much more actively, namely the importance of addressing cargo claims’ recoveries appropriately, demystifying the main cargo claim-related myths, with the aim of containing financial exposure from cargo claims and being active in related loss prevention.
It has been a rather mixed year for many commodity sectors, with investment participation much reduced, with the notable exception of some softs, above all Cocoa. In Sugar, there has been a very notable shift down in producer selling, thanks in part to India’s export ban, so what are the prospects of supply and demand in 2024?
Gold has proven to be a much more resilient ‘safe haven’ than many other traditional safe havens, above all in response to the Israel Hamas war, we take a look at some of the drivers of this unusual outperformance.
‘Solar grazing’ is an example of an unusual partnership between shepherding and solar energy production. How has this partnership evolved, and what have been some of the unexpected benefits, and what are the potential implications in risk management terms.
As the autumn round of commodity and energy conference season draws to a close, we look at some of the enduring impressions about the financing challenges for both hydrocarbons and renewables, and in the broader context of sustainability, the complexity of standardizing key data inputs and the risks of regulatory divergence.
Marc Ostwald
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
