Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
Welcome to June 2020 edition of the Ghost In The Machine.
For the UK agri-food and related shipping sectors, the Covid19 challenge has come on top of all the Brexit related uncertainty and the devastating floods at the start of 2020, but as elsewhere also highlighted the critical importance of food security, which the sector has steadfastly risen to meet.
We take a look at the UK and global outlook for feed and food, and there is an in-depth report on the UK flour milling sector. The pandemic has forced politicians and policymakers to take precipitous decisions to contain the spread of the virus, above all ‘locking down’ most economies, with unprecedented and severe consequences for economic activity.
We ask what lessons could be drawn from the post WWI ‘Spanish Flu’ pandemic, and look at how lockdowns have highlighted that the ‘technological revolution’ of recent decades has been more of a flirtation, from which many are excluded.
It has also highlighted potential policy focal points as the world tries to engineer a recovery, even if international co-operation in the fight against the pandemic has been palpable.
April’s oil futures price collapse into negative territory was a point lesson in how nothing is impossible, we examine the market structures that facilitated the move, the fact that it was not unprecedented in the commodity space, and the regulatory implications. Wherever oil prices go inevitably has implications for ethanol prices, and associated commodity markets, with an already heavily challenged sugar market seeing sharp swings in price, production and demand outlook terms, further complicated by a volatile Brazilian Real.
Lockdown has also prompted sharp shifts in household and business energy demand, with differing consequences for coal, gas and renewable sectors. Gold has naturally seen flight to quality demand, but a low inflation and near zero interest rate environment should continue to provide support.
Last but not least, our colleagues from Protexin look at the evolution of research into the human microbiome into a billion dollar industry, and its applications in clinical terms, as well as the ethical and regulatory considerations.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
