Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2026
March 26, 2026
Welcome to the Q1 2026 edition of Ghost In The Machine
Welcome to the Q1 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, as military conflict in the Middle East again disrupts supply chains, swinging the pendulum further away from ‘Just in Time’ to ‘Just In Case’ not only in the short-term, but also requiring long-term strategic repositioning.
There is a detailed discussion about AI implementation in commodities and energy trading, highlighting the risks of focusing on speed, proof of concept and activity traps, and the need to understand not only what the technology is doing, but also why.
In a similar vein, there is a look at how AI and automation are transforming credit risk management, above all increasing productivity, but also emphasising that human judgement remains essential.
Sugar prices have had a torrid 12 months as markets have focused on a supply surplus, but perhaps greater attention needs to be paid to the tight stocks-to-use ratio, robust demand, and the risk of lower production and weather events.
The US joint ABA/Farmer Mac 2025 Agricultural Lender Survey suggests that up to half of US farms would be unprofitable, prompting a bipartisan group of agricultural and biofuel leaders to send a letter to Congress with a plan to revitalise the sector.
We also take an in-depth look at prospects for the dairy sector, and the complex interface between rising production, protein demand and changes in consumer behaviour.
What key points should investors be looking at with regard to the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and the implications for airlines?
Dry bulk freight prices are formed by fundamentals, but what is recorded as “the price” is shaped by institutions, benchmarks, and conventions; as such, large-scale traders’ risk management focuses increasingly on basis.
Finally, Japan’s PM Takaichi faces a high-wire act in balancing a huge debt load against her government’s expansionary fiscal policies.
Marc Ostwald
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
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