Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
Good morning,
Yesterday saw another day of consolidation with an inside day and low trading volume. The market had opened 5 points weaker but had immediately dropped another 10 points. Prices continued to slide until support was found at 23.20 which saw prices improve to push up to the day’s highs as US traders got to their desks. However, the high of 23.50 was reached only momentarily before prices swiftly dropped back to the lows of the day at 23.20. Prices then slowly improved over the remainder of the session to settle at the top end of the day’s range. However, the trading volume was poor again with just under 83.4k lots traded. The VH dropped again losing another 3 points to end at -12. The HK finished 1 point lower at +135. In London the structure remains firm with the QV up another $2 to +14.30 with the Q-23 expiry on Friday. The OI dropped to 11,580 lots with another 6,334 lots traded yesterday continuing to suggest a small delivery. The WP slipped slightly with the VV WP ending at 131.30 and the VZ WP at 123.30. It was another day of quiet consolidation as the market begins to find support at around 23 cents with resistance around 23.80. The continuing weakness of the VH suggests the downside is more likely to be tested in the short term, especially with Unica data out later today.
Unica will release their latest harvest data for the second half of June today at 15:00 (London time). It should show high crush and sugar production numbers as field operations have been in top gear throughout the period with no delays caused by rain. Crush is expected to be around 45 million tonnes which could see just over 3 million tonnes of sugar produced from a split of around 49.00/51.00. A good figure is expected but may still weigh on prices if achieved.
While the Indian monsoon has now covered the whole country the rains have been below average and some areas have received very limited rains. Maharashtra has seen rains around 71% lower than average during June while Karnataka was just over 50% below average. However, with normal rainfall predicted for July, there is ample time for things to improve and it may be a case of talking prices higher by some. However, future exports will be limited due to an expansion of ethanol production according to BMI a research firm part of the Fitch group. The Government’s target of 20% blending by 2025 looks doubtful but is already at 11.5%. As more ethanol refineries open more cane will be diverted.
Queensland Sugar reported the first shipment of raw sugar to the UK under the free trade agreement between the UK and Australia was loaded in Townsville yesterday. The sugar is going to the T&L refinery in Silvertown, London. This will be the first shipment under the Australian/UK Free Trade Agreement which came into force on the 31st May and the first tariff free shipment from Australia in 50 years.
This morning the market opened 3 points firmer but soon dropped back. Currently, prices are 15 points lower. The VH is 1 point weaker at -13 as is the HK at +134. In early London trading the QV and VZ are unchanged at +14.30 and +8.00 respectively. The macro is a positive picture this morning with most commodities trending higher while the USD Index is weaker. The BRL ended virtually unchanged yesterday at 4.88. In the short term, the Unica data could weigh on prices but the concern that the monsoon rains are not sufficient as yet is likely to add some support. Therefore, a big drop in prices would seem unlikely with support seen at 23 cents. However, up-side also looks limited as Brazilian sugar becomes abundant.
Contact the ADMISI Sugar Desk team:
Phone: +44(0) 20 7716 8598
Email: admisi.sugar@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2023 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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