Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
Good morning,
Friday saw another quiet day as the market continues to tread water awaiting some fresh fundamental news especially from India. The NY market opened 11 to 12 points firmer after being closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Prices continued to improve during the morning eventually pushing above 15 cents and reaching the highs of the day early afternoon. However, the buying eventually dried up with prices soon dipping soon after US traders getting to their desks. Prices lost all the gains momentarily dipping into the negative column mid-afternoon. However, the support was enough to see prices improve slightly on some light day trader short covering which took prices back up to 15 cents again. For the rest of the session values slowly slipped back to settle with modest gains on the day. The trading volume was limited again at just over 76k lots. The HK slipped a couple of points to +80 while the KN ended 1 point weaker at +54. In London The HK improved to settle at +6.90 while the KQ ended weaker at +6.60. This put the HH WP $3 firmer at 78.00 while the KK WP also ended slightly higher at 88.70. It was another non-descript session with many traders appearing to be still enjoying extended Thanksgiving celebrations.
The COT will be released tonight due to the Federal holiday. The market remains range-bound as the market continues to await news from the Indian government regarding their export policy as has been the case for many weeks. Even the chatter regarding any decisions seems to have quietened. The Brazilian CS harvest is coming to an end with enough rain recently to get mills to pack up for the season. The forecast sees further rain over the next 10 days which will continue to improve soil moisture levels which will bode well for the next harvest although no one is expecting sugar production to be as high as this remarkable season. There has also been some chatter than the Thai cane crop may have improved after the good rains over the past couple of months. Recently estimates are creeping higher with total crop now seen around 73 million tonnes still considerable lower than in 2017/18 when over 120 million tonnes of cane was crushed.
This morning the market opened unchanged before improving 9 points on some light market on opening buying. Prices currently have slipped back slightly to remain around 4-5 points better. The HK is around unchanged at +80 while the KN is a couple of points better at +56. In London it is a very sleepy opening sees the HK unchanged at around +6.90 while the KQ is a little stronger at +6.80. The macro is mixed this morning with equities and crude lower as is the USD. The BRL ended the week around unchanged at 5.34. It is difficult to get too enthusiastic about the market. The funds seem content to continue to hold their large net long position but are in no hurry to increase it while the trade remain nervous and uncertain. So it would seem likely prices will remain within the recent range for the time being.
Contact the ADMISI Sugar Desk team:
Howard Jenkins, Charles Branch, Kevin Watkins, Steven Trigg
Phone: +44(0) 207 716 8598
Email: admisi.sugar@admisi.com
Registered in England No. 2547805 a subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
