Sugar Market Report

Good morning,

Yesterday saw another low volume day with just a 21 point range as the market remains range bound. The market opened 7 points lower before gradually improving slightly but it was very quiet with prices remaining within a narrow 10 point range for all but the last third of the session when prices improved to the highs of the day but never got into the plus column. The market eventually settled at the top end of the day’s range but down for the fourth consecutive day. The HK improved 1 point to +91 while the KN slipped a couple of points to +64. In London things were equally as quiet with the HK weakening again to end at +7.90 as did the KQ which finished at +9.40. This put the HH WP slightly weaker at 77.00 while the KK WP was $1 firmer at 89.20. All in all another frustratingly quiet session as the market awaits news, any news, from India.

Today Unica will release their harvest data for the first half of November at 14:00 (London time) today. A Platts survey of 10 analysts sees total crush during the period at just under 18 million tonnes producing around 1.1 million tonnes of sugar from a split of 42.2%. It was estimated that a couple of days of crushing was halted by rain. If these predictions prove to be correct then it would be the highest first half November sugar production since 2017/18. Cumulative production at around 37.54 million tonnes would be some 44% higher year on year. The ATR is expected to remain high at around 149 kg/mt which would be the highest for the period since 2007/08. Unless the data is significantly different to these expectations then it is unlikely to have any significant impact on prices.

Reuters reports that 10,000 tonnes of white sugar has been sold by an Indian Mill without any government support. The December shipment is scheduled to be shipped to Afghanistan. While the quantity is small it is somewhat significant that mills are looking to export without any government export policy in place for the current season. Without any subsidies it is likely the sugar will have been sold at a loss. Therefore, it is unlikely any significant further sales will be made but it does emphasis the pressure mills are under to pay dues to farmers. This may be an attempt to hasten the government to announce their export policy but, so far, there has been no comment from the government.

This morning the market opened a couple of points firmer before gaining another 6 points. Currently the market is holding around 5 points better but volume, so far, is virtually no-existent. The HK ad KN are unchanged at +91 and +64 respectively. In early London trading the HK is a tad firmer at +8.20 while the KQ is slightly weaker at +8.90. There is precious little to add this morning. The market continues to stagnate as the India government remains silent. Tomorrow NY will be shut due to the Thanksgiving holiday so many US traders will, probably, starting their celebrations early given the current market conditions

Contact the ADMISI Sugar Desk team:

Howard Jenkins, Charles Branch, Kevin Watkins, Steven Trigg

Phone: +44(0) 207 716 8598

Email: admisi.sugar@admisi.com

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