Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 34th day of partial shutdown. Grains are mixed/higher. US stocks are higher on higher earnings. USD is higher. Crude is finding support near $60. OPEC may pause increase production early in 2026. Gold is near 4,000 and could be capped due to talk US Central Bank may not lower rates in December. China ended a gold tax abatement which could reduce new investment buying. C/W Argentina rains. Rains in Brazil except NE. US Midwest is dry.
USDA announced they will release a crop report on November 14, even if shutdown continues. StoneX, ARC and S/P Global private crop estimates this week.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.20 on fund buying and highest weekly close since July,2024. US cash and spreads are rallying on China trade deal news. SF resistance is near 11.30. SX deliveries were 207. Most doubt China will buy 12 mmt by the end of the year. But if they do, analyst would add 150 mil bu to US exports. SMZ up $55.7 from Sep low on fund short covering. BOZ is below 49 cents and waiting for any new news on domestic demand. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Soybean futures up to how much China buys US and pace of buying. vs fact Brazil is cheaper into mid 2026.
CORN
CZ is near 4.33 on fund short covering and following soymeal. CZ up 42 cents from August low. CZ resistance 4.36. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. US and Brazil farmers increase cash sales. Increase logistic challenges is slowing Ukraine grain movement to ports. Some could see US farmer planting 5-7 less corn acres in 2026.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.42. WZ above 100 DMA. Up 51 cents since October low. KWZ is near 5.29. MWZ is near 5.55. Wheat rallied on rumors of China interest in US white and HRW wheat. South hemisphere harvest peak in late November and could offer resistance to prices. Some see US 2026 acres near 44.4 vs 45.3 in 2025, crop of 1,857 vs 1,927.
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