Soybeans and Corn Higher on Demand

Grains AM Outlook

Grains are mixed. SX is up 7 cents and near 10.29. SMZ is near 348.5. BOZ is near 32.82. CZ is up 1 cent and near 3.80. WZ is down 1 cent and near 5.82. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 5.23. Talk of lower US 2020 supply and higher demand is helping soybean and corn overnight. US stocks are marginally lower. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower. POTUS is back in the WH. US Congress and administration are working on a new stimulus aid.

Chinese Ag futures are closed for a week long holiday (Oct 1st thru 8th). Malaysian palm oil prices were up 56 ringgit at 2,777 (basis December) at midsession supported by rival vegoils and ideas a La Nina pattern could hurt output in the next few months.

The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has dry weather continuing through the upcoming weekend with a front moving in next Monday/Tuesday bringing light to moderate rainfall mainly to MN and NW IA. Remnants of Hurricane Delta look to impact southern IL, the southern half of IN, and all of OH the first half of next week. Temps will warm to average through the week with the upcoming weekend and first half of next week being above normal. The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period looks mainly dry. Temps will be running above average.

The Brazilian growing regions has little rainfall for most areas except for central/east (light amounts for northern Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and southern Parana) over the next 10 day period. Some rains are also seen for Mato Grosso. Rains do look to develop north of Parana bringing moderate amounts for the weekend into early next week with 85% coverage. The Argentine growing regions has mostly dry weather over the next 10 days.

Average trade guess for US 2020 corn crop is 14,808, range 14,604-14,963. USDA is 14,900

Average trade guess for US 2020 soybean crop is 4,282, range 4,182-4,350. USDA is 4,313

Average trade guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 2,113, range 1,859-2,333. USDA is 2,503

Average trade guess for US 2020/21 soybean carryout is 369, range 285-460. USDA is 460

Average trade guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is 887, range 830-917. USDA is 925

Average trade guess for World 2020/21 corn carryout is 300.1 mmt, range 291.3-305.0. USDA is 306.7

Average trade guess for World 2020/21 soybean carryout is 91.6, range 88.0-94.1. USDA is 93.6

Average trade guess for World 2020/21 wheat carryout is 317.2, range 310.9-322.0. USDA is 319.3

 

Brazil soybean plantings 2 pct vs 4 average. 2021 South America crop est near 199.0 mmt vs 190 last year

Domestic Brazil soybean prices is near $13.25/bu and corn $5.80

Argentina corn plantings 15 pct vs 21 average. 2021 South America crop est near 166 mmt vs 158 last year

 

US corn crop rated 62 pct good/ex 61 last week. 25 pct crop harvested vs 15 last week and 14 ly

MN corn 14 pct harvested, IL 26. IN 22, NE 21, SD 20, OH 9. MN 81 pct G/E, IA 45

US soybean crop rated 64 pct good/ex 64 last week. 38 pct crop harvested vs 20 last week and 12 ly

MN soybean 61 pct harvested, IL 225 IN 30, NE 55, SD 60, OH 21. MN 79 pct G/E, IA 49

52 pct US 2021 winter wheat crop is planted versus 35 last week. KS 56, MO 8, WA 76

US corn export shipments are near 3.6 mmt vs 2.0 ly, soybean 6.6 mmt vs 4.2 ly, wheat 9.9 vs 9.0

On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 1,000 Corn; net bought 1,000 Soybeans; sold 6,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 7,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 45,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 165,000 Corn; net long 257,000 Soybeans; net long 87,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 94,000 Soyoil.

 

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