Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
CRUDE OIL
November Crude Oil is lower this morning but still within the upper half of yesterday range up day. Apparently a risk-off mood has developed with the increasing likelihood of a government shutdown and two days of declines in the stocks market. News that eight oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan (representing more than 90% of the region’s production) have reached agreements in principle with the Iraq’s federal and Kurdish regional government (KRG) to resume oil exports via pipeline to Turkey is another bearish factor. The reopening would add around 230,000 barrels per day to global supply. Bloomberg reported that Russia’s oil refineries processed an average of 4.9 million barrels per day between September 11-17, down nearly 70,000 bpd from the previous seven days after a Ukrainian drone strike ignited a fire at a Gazprom PJSC petrochemical plant in Russia. The EIA Report yesterday was on the bullish end of expectations, especially for the products, with crude stocks falling 600,000 barrels last week versus expectations for a 200,000-barrel increase, gasoline stocks down 1.1 million versus +200,000 expected, and distillates down 1.7 million versus -500,000 expected.
NATURAL GAS
November Natural Gas is higher today and is approaching the 9-day moving average. This follows a move to its lowest level since 2022 earlier this week and to the lowest level since November for the nearby contract. The warm weather forecast continues over most of the lower 48 states, but the initial bearishness of the impact may have played itself for the moment. Above average temps could increase cooling demand, but they also reduce heating demand in the north. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for above normal temperature over the most of the nation out through October 8, as each day it gets extended by another day.
PRODUCTS
The EIA Report yesterday was on the bullish end of expectations for the products, with gasoline stocks down 1.1 million barrels last week versus +200,000 expected, and distillates down 1.7 million versus -500,000 expected. Implied gasoline demand was better than the previous week and above the five-year average but slightly below a year ago. Distillate demand also improved, but it was still below year ago and the five-year average. US gasoline stocks are the lowest they have been since last November and they are the lowest for this week of the year since 2022. They have a seasonal tendency to decline from June into early November. Distillate stocks put in a six-year-plus low at 93.525 million in early July and have climbed back to the four year average. They have a seasonal tendency to decline into mid-November.
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