Written Commentary
ADM Appoints Monish Patolawala as EVP and CFO
July 10, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. USDA report day. US weekly exports sales delayed until Friday. SX is up 6 cents and near 12.58. SMZ is near 383.2. BOZ is near 52.41 CZ is up 1 cent and near 4.88. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.59. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 6.71. MWZ is up 3 cents and near 7.22. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Central Bank dovish comments ae moving US equity and US Dollar. UAW increased strike adding large Ford Kentucky plant.
Soybean futures trade below key 12.54 support but overnight is back above that key support price. China Dalian soybean futures were lower, soymeal, and soyoil were higher. Parts of Brazil is dry but CONAB est record 162 mmt 2024 crop. Argentina remains dry, but Rosario exchange est 2024 crop ar 50 mmt vs 25 last year. USDA announced 121 mt US soybeans to China and 213 mt to unknown. Slow Argentina meal exports is helping US SBM futures and drops soyoil share of board crush. Trade est US soybean yield near 49.9 and 2023/24 carryout at 233.
Corn futures remain below 5.00 resistance. CONAB est Brazil crop at 119 mmt, second largest but down 12.5 mmt vs ly. Argentina remains mostly dry but USDA est Argentina 2024 corn crop at 54 mmt vs 34 ly. Trade est US corn yield near 173.5 and 2023/24 carryout at 2,138. There is some talk that US Midwest corn yields could be higher than expected.
Wheat futures traded lower on Wednesday. Funds are adding to net short due to slow US and EU export demand and active shipments from Russia and Constanza ports. This despite talk of China interest in US gulf SRW USDA today could lower US exports 50-745 mil bu which would add to US carryout. Aussia wheat futures are lower on talk of higher supply.
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