Quiet Trade With Limited Price Movement

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Quiet trade across the Ag space overnight with limited price movement.  Weekly export sales along with monthly census data later this AM.  Wire services have released their survey expectations for next Monday’s USDA reports.  A fast moving storm is providing some drought relief for the central plains overnight.  Heavier totals to favor E. KS with lighter amounts in the west.  US rainfall thru early next week to favor the C. Midwest and SE, limited coverage for the WCB.  Dry for the northern and far southern plains.  Good rains forecast for C. Argentina thru the weekend, dry in the SW.  Favorable conditions hold thru much of Brazil.  The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of the Trump Admin use of tariffs on Friday.  Crude oil is up $.90 barrel, the US $$ slightly higher, US equity markets slightly lower.

Corn: 

Inside trade for Mch-26 overnight holding just above its 50 day MA at $4.44 ½.  Export sales expected between 28-60 mil. bu.  A Reuters poll shows analysts expect US corn production to fall 200 mil. bu. to 16.552 bil. with the Ave yield slipping to 184 bpa.  Ending stocks to drop 57 mil. to 1.972 bil.  Much of the lower production will likely be offset by lower feed usage.  Dec. 1st expected to come in a record high of 12.962 bil. well above the 12.075 bil. YA.

Soybeans: 

Inside trade for Mch-26 beans holding near $10.65 with 100 day MA resistance at $10.85.  Inside trade for Mch-26 meal as it held support at its 100 day MA overnight.  Mch-26 oil fell back into its $.48-$.50 range.  Markets will likely need to see confirmation of additional Chinese purchases to maintain recent strength.  Export sales are expected to range from 28-48 mil. bu. of beans, 100-300k tons of meal and 0-20k tons of oil.  The Reuters poll shows analysts expect US bean production to drop 24 mil. bu. to 4.229 bil. with the Ave yield slipping to 52.7 bpa.  The ave guess for ending stocks at 292 mil. up only 2 mil. from Nov-26 however the range is rather wide from 245 to 350 mil.  We are at 301 mil. bu.  Dec. 1st expected to come in at 3.250 bil. well above the 3.10 bil. YA.  Global stocks expected to rise a bit to 123.1 mmt.  While Chinese return for US soybeans will cut into Brazilian exports, probably not enough to prevent the USDA from lowering their current US export forecast of 1.635 bil.

Wheat:

The upside leader overnight with prices ranging from $.01-$.03 higher overnight.  Mch-26 CGO hovering near yesterday’s high near $5.20.  Mch-26 KC holding just below last months high of $5.36 ½.  Export sales are expected to range from 8-18 mil. bu.  Dec. 1st stocks are expected to come in at 1.636 bil. above the 1.573 from YA.  Ending stocks expected to slip 5 mil. to 896 mil. bu.  Winter wheat acres are expected to drop 2% to 32.413 mil. acres which if realized would be a 6 year low.  Global stocks are expected to rise 1.1 mmt to 276 mmt.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.