Pressure From Stock Market Selloff?

CRUDE OIL 

March Crude Oil is lower this morning after falling to its lowest level since January 10 overnight. The market could see pressure today from weakness in the stock market, which is being led lower by tech stocks in the wake of news that the Chinese AI software Deepseek has made significant breakthroughs that threaten the dominance of US AI and chip manufacturers. Overnight, the Trump Administration swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia after that nation agreed to accept deported migrants from the US. Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude to the US. Last week President Trump announced sweeping plans to boost US crude oil production, and he also reiterated his call for OPEC to cut prices to hurt Russia’s finances and help bring an end to the war in Ukraine. Putin said on Friday that he and Trump should meet to talks about the Ukraine war and energy prices. OPEC+ already has a plan in place to start increasing production in April. Keep in mind that US crude oil supplies are the lowest for this point in the season in six years and the lowest overall since 2022. Asia trade should be slow due this week due to the Lunar New Year holidays. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 20,196 contracts of crude oil for the week ending January 21, increasing their net long to 250,887.

 

sunset oil drilling

 

NATURAL GAS

March Natural Gas gapped lower overnight as warmer temperatures set in across the US and the European Commission indicated it would continue talks with Ukraine on natural gas supplies to Europe and that it will include Hungary and Slovakia in the discussions. A warmup in Europe is pressuring demand there as well. The 6-10 and 8-14-day forecasts show a mix of above normal and below normal temperatures across the US, with colder than normal across the northwestern half and warmer than normal in the southeastern half. The EIA gas storage report last week showed a draw of 223 bcf for the week ending January 17, which was smaller draw than expectations calling for -225 to -300. Storage was up 1.3% from a year ago versus -2.1% the previous week, which marked a return to a surplus after falling below for the first time in a year the previous week. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 9,008 contracts of natural gas for the week ending January 21, reducing their net long to 46,475.

 

PRODUCT MARKETS

Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 6,644 contracts of RBOB for the week ending January 21, reducing their net long to 50,579. This is towards the middle of the long term range. The selling trend is short term negative. The return of more moderate temperatures to the US this week appears to have pulled support from the ULSD market.

 

 

 

 

>Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now