Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil is near unchanged overnight after running into resistance at the 50-day moving average. The Baker Hughes rig count on Friday showed US oil rigs in operation were down 6 rigs to 414 last week, the lowest since September 2021. This was down from 479 rigs a year ago and below the five-year average of 452. OPEC+ agreed to lift its quota by a modest 137,000 barrels per day in December (as expected) and then to pause the output hikes for the first quarter of 2026. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said today that the group was still seeing positive signs for oil demand and did not expect any surprises in the market. A monthly EIA report released on Friday showed US oil and gas production rose to record highs in August. This should not be a surprise to those looking at the weekly reports. US crude oil output reached 13.8 million bpd, beating the previous record of 13.7 mbpd in July.
PRODUCTS
December RBOB poked through the recent consolidation overnight and trade to its highest level in more than a month.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas extended its rally overnight and reached its highest level since July 23. The weather forecast in the lower 48 states has turned a bit more seasonal, especially in the 6-10 day. The forecast is still mild, but the bulls are encouraged by the trend higher in US LNG exports and trend lower in US production. On Friday, LSEG reported that the average amount of gas flowing to the eight big US LNG export plants had risen to 16.6 billion cubic feet per day for October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and beating the previous record of 16.0 bcfd from April. They also said that average gas output in the Lower 48 states had fallen to 107.0 billion bcfd for October, down from 107.5 bcfd in September and a 108.0 bcfd in August
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
ADM Reports Q2 2025 Results
August 5, 2025
