Off to a Mixed Start


Grains are mixed. SH is up 3 cents and near 13.75. SMH is near 434.4. BOH is near 44.86. CH is unchanged and near 5.49. WH is up 5 cents and near 6.43. KWH is up 4 cents and near 6.23. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 20 cents; HRW down 20; HRS down 8; Corn is down 11 cents; Soybeans down 17 cents; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil down 120 points. Crushing margins are down $0.03 at $0.66 (July); Oil share down 1% at 33%.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 65 ringgit at 3,382 (basis April).

In Argentina, net drying will still occur in much of the region through next Thursday. There will be some increase in erratic shower and thunderstorm activity for Monday through Thursday; though, this is likely to favor the northwest.  In Brazil, conditions will still be favorable for crops in most of the nation.

Trade looks for US corn carryout near 1,392 mil bu vs USDA 1,552, soybean 123 vs 140 and wheat 834 vs 836. Trade looks for World corn carryout near 279.8 mmt vs USDA 283.8, soybean 83.3 vs 84.3 and wheat 312.8 vs 313.1. Trade looks for Brazil corn crop at 108.5 mmt vs USDA 109.0, Argentina corn 47.0 vs 47.5. USDA Brazil Ag Attaché est Brazil corn crop at 105.0. Trade looks for Brazil soybean crop at 132.4 mmt vs USDA 133.0, Argentina soybean 47.6 vs 48.0.

Argentina estimated their soybean crop 19 pct G/E vs 65 ly. Argentina weather forecast is dry. There is 10.7 mmt of soybean vessels to load in Brazil. Only 90 mt has been loaded in Feb. Brazil rains are slowing soybean harvest. Brazil premiums continues to trend lower on lack of new China sales and approaching harvest. Palmoil futures are higher on production concerns and new China and India buying.

Argentina lowered their corn crop 1 mmt to 46 mmt. Crop is rated 24 pct G/E vs 59 last year. Argentina weather forecast is dry while Brazil rains have slowed soybean harvest and slowed plantings of the 2nd corn crop. US corn export commit is near 91 pct of USDA goal. Lack of new US corn sales to China announcement offers resistance to futures despite talk US domestic buyers are unable to source summer corn.

On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 10,000 SRW Wheat; sold 4,000 Corn; net bought 3,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 397,000 Corn; net long 162,000 Soybeans; net long 73,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 119,000 Soyoil. Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,800 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,900; Corn up 16,400; Soybeans up 1,200 contracts; Soymeal up 6,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,200.

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