Written Commentary
ADM Reports Q4 and Full-year 2025 Results
February 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
May Crude Oil was higher early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range. As each day passes concerns about the cutoff in supply from the Persian Gulf persist, and any perceived escalation of attacks from Iran provides support for global crude oil prices. Reports that Iran launched new attacks on UAE on Tuesday that caused a temporary closing of their airspace added to support overnight. Oil loading at the United Arab Emirates port of Fujairah was at least partly halted after a third attack in four days caused a fire at the export terminal. This is their only terminal outside the Persian Gulf. Israel’s Defense Minister said that Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani had been killed in an Israeli strike, but there had been no confirmation from Iran as of this writing. Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan and Australia said they had no immediate plans to send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were higher overnight and were closer to last Monday’s contract highs than crude oil was. For the petroleum stocks reports this week, the early Reuters poll had an average trade expectation calling for US gasoline stocks to be -1.5 million barrels for the week ending March 13, with distillates -1.6 million.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas was higher early Tuesday but inside the lower half of Monday’s range down. The US gas market is insulated from the tight global supply because the US does not rely on natural gas imports and because exports are already close to the maximum the current infrastructure will allow. The wintry weather moving through the eastern US is expected to pass, and a warmup will follow. The storms may have caused a drop in usage, as reported that more than 500,000 homes and businesses lost power for a time. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show above normal temperatures dominating most of the lower 48, except for some normal temps in the western Great Lakes and below normal in the eastern Great Lakes and New England. The mild temperatures last week are even prompting ideas that US gas storage may have seen a build last week.
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