Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is unch. Gold is lower. Silver and copper are higher. Bitcoin is higher.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.59. Nearby futures have taken out the rally after US and China trade deal was announced. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower on talk China will continue to sell soybeans from reserve to make room for US imports. USDA announced 114 mt US soybeans to unknown. Argentina is dry except north. Argentina plantings are 67 pct with crop rated 65 pct excellent versus 58 last week. Brazil could see good rains. Demand for Brazil soybeans has slowed. Canada canola and Matif rapeseed are lower. Dalian vegoil prices were lower. US soybean export commit is down 39 pct vs ly and USDA down 13.
CORN
CH is near 4.43. CH was supported by rumors of China buying US corn. Dalian corn futures were lower and 4 week low. Brazil rains continue. Argentina is dry with showers in the north. Argentina plantings are 70 pct with crop rated 88 excellent vs 38 ly. US, Brazil and now central EU farmers are reluctant sellers. Matif corn near contract lows. Slowdown in Ukraine export pace, buyers waiting for SA crops and drop in Argentina exports tax is helping demand for Argentina corn. US corn export commit is up 30 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9. Destination buyers are paying $20 more than ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.06. WH is oversold. KWH is near 5.15. MWH is near 5.75. Argentina futures were higher. 73 pct of crop is harvested with crop est increase to 27.1 mmt vs USDA 24. Matif futures are quiet as traders take holiday. There is little interest in Russia wheat. Ukraine suffering from electrical black outs. US wheat export commit is up 23 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9. Canada wheat exports are near 10.6 mmt up 9 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 8.
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